Who should be the first pick, Holmgren or Banchero?

Banchero and Holmgren are as different prospects as you will find. Banchero is the more polished of the two. Physical, powerful and skilled with an NBA-ready body and game. Holmgren is lean and lanky, with instincts for shot-blocking, three-point shooting and catch-and-go ability that are staples of the modern NBA.

So what are the recruiters looking for? What is the case for and against Holmgren or Banchero as the first pick? Can anyone else challenge them?

What is the case for and against Holmgren as the first pick?
As we’ve seen with Cleveland Cavaliers rookie Evan Mobley, today’s NBA is all about length and skill, and no player in this draft class brings more of those two things to the table relative to his position than Holmgren. At 7′” feet tall, with great range and some of the sharpest shot-blocking instincts you’ll see in a 19-year-old, Holmgren is a future NBA Defensive Player of the Year candidate.

His timing, range and compete level have helped him block more than six shots every 40 minutes in six games. He’s a true defensive anchor who plays much tougher than his paper-thin frame suggests, as he put a lid on the rim and helped beat No. 2 UCLA 83-63 on Tuesday. While he’s not as quick as Mobley, Holmgren is also more than comfortable stepping out and switching guards, using his length and high-level feel to deter smaller guys from attacking him or diving from deep.

On the flip side, the NBA values bigs who can shoot, handle and pass, all of which Holmgren does at a relatively high level. Scouts have marveled at his routine, as you simply don’t see bigs of his stature with his footwork off the dribble. Holmgren almost always makes the right play, as he’s a great passer of short shots and high and low passers, and someone you could even use in 4-5 pick-and-rolls like Cleveland does with Mobley.

On top of all that, Holmgren has an edge, he’s focused on every possession with a serious approach. Watching him up close in Las Vegas, he’s a fierce competitor and no stranger to playful banter. After scoring a three-pointer late in the game against the Bruins, Holmgren waved goodbye to the crowd. Despite his lean frame, he plays fearlessly, and NBA fans and teammates alike should be drawn to his competitiveness and showmanship.

So why would scouts stop to take Holmgren No. 1 overall? His frame and durability. At what looks close to 7-2, Holmgren weighs 195 pounds and it remains to be seen how much weight his body type can carry. While he has a mean streak with him, teams will wonder whether or not he can make it through an 82-game season, especially in a stronger NBA. While he is a defensive anchor in terms of rim protection and welcomes contact, can he really defend a Joel Embiid or a Nikola Jokic, or will he need a big physical next to him?

While he’s more than capable of switching and Holmgren is a smart pick-and-roll defender who is well beyond his years in drop-back situations, his detractors will wonder how he’ll fare against teams like the Miami Heat or Toronto Raptors. That was put to the test against a big with Banchero’s perimeter ability and drive. Duke prevailed 84-81.

On the offensive end, can Holmgren punish a turnover if teams opt to simply switch everything, crowd his air space, take away his threes and push it? Can he create enough offense in the halfcourt to function as the number one option on a championship team? With Kristaps Porzingis’ lack of durability as a caveat, those are the debates that will arise in NBA war rooms. How he answers those questions against Banchero will go a long way in determining whether he can hold on to the top spot.

What is the case for and against Banchero as the top pick?
Banchero is about as ready as an NBA prospect. Plug him into an NBA game tomorrow and he could give you 20 points and 10 rebounds. As expected, he was incredibly productive in his first six games averaging 17.8 points, 8.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists and 1.5 steals in just 28 minutes a night while shooting 62% and 31% from three-point range. The top prospects to reach those per-game averages over a full college season since 2000: Zion Williamson (Duke), Ben Simmons (LSU) and Carmelo Anthony (Syracuse). Not bad company for the potential No. 1 pick.

He’s the type of modern day ‘big’ that you can run your offense with on a regular basis, while Holmgren has yet to become a true center given some of his physical limitations. Banchero moves his feet incredibly well for his size and even has the agility to function as a big 3 in some jumbo lineups, as we’ve seen from up front like Philadelphia’s Tobias Harris, while possessing the strength to slide into the power forward position.

So why would NBA executives question the selection of a 250-pound guy with a guard’s shot and similarities to small forwards like Jayson Tatum or Anthony? While Holmgren possesses incredible length, Banchero has an average wingspan (7-1) and range relative to his position, and doesn’t make up for it with the elite vertical explosiveness you’ll see in the NBA’s best jumpers. While he’s equipped with incredible touch, will he be able to outwork opponents and finish with the same level of efficiency against NBA length?

Against Holmgren in a practice setting at the Iverson Classic in Memphis, Banchero struggled to create an efficient offense, living quite a bit off his mid-range jump shot. The question then becomes, how many of the NBA’s best bigs are true power forwards who don’t really protect the rim or shoot threes at a high level? Banchero’s free throw stroke and mid-range game indicate that he will be a good three-point shooter. Like Tatum at Duke, he also has some dribbling tendencies that he would benefit from addressing, as he would become much more efficient and unlock even more of his passing potential. While Banchero is more physically ready and polished, does he impact the game enough when he’s not scoring? Does he have the same upside as the shot blocker, three-point shooter and passer to Holmgren?

Who is the player who could make this a three-player run?
The only player who could really threaten Holmgren or Banchero for the top spot is Auburn’s Jabari Smith, the No. 6 player in his high school class and the No. 3 prospect in our top 100. The 18-year-old has been excellent for coach Bruce Pearl in his first three college games, averaging 20.5 points, 13.3 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 3.6 steals and 2.0 blocks per 40 minutes while knocking down 47% of his three-pointers. At 6-10, 220 pounds with solid length and some of the quickest feet you’ll see in a player his size, Smith is arguably an even more modern player than Holmgren or Banchero. He’s an incredible switch defender with an outstanding shooting stroke, even coming off three-pointers in transition and creating space with stepbacks. While not always as physical as he could be, he plays with great spirit on both ends and is a year younger than Holmgren and six months younger than Banchero. He won’t turn 19 until May.

The only real questions I have about Smith is his temperament. He plays with a somewhat fast-paced style and doesn’t have the same level of high-level prep experience as Holmgren or Banchero, coming out of Sandy Creek High School in Georgia. But Smith grew up around basketball as the son and nephew of former NBA players Jabari Smith Sr. and Kwame Brown, and he brings the kind of defensive energy, versatility and shooting that will buy him time as the game slows down.

Who is your number one right now?
I’ve long considered Holmgren to be the best prospect in this class, and while I’ve been impressed with Banchero’s skill level and NBA-ready game, I firmly believe Holmgren should be the first pick if the draft were today. As we said about several of the top picks in last year’s draft, both Banchero and Holmgren are special prospects, No. 1 caliber guys and franchise mainstays. Some high-level executives see Holmgren as the clear top prospect, while others favor Banchero and his prefabricated game.

That said, I’m not sure Holmgren is getting the kind of credit he deserves as a truly elite prospect, largely because he doesn’t have a prototypical NBA body. To indicate just how unique Holmgren’s overall impact is, he is the only player in college basketball history to average at least 20 points, 10 rebounds, 5 assists and 5 blocks per 40 minutes.

He’s much tougher than a prospect like Porzingis ever was, and one could argue that Holmgren is even more advanced as a shot blocker and shooter than Mobley was as a freshman. Playing alongside an aggressive All-American like Drew Timme, I’m pretty sure Gonzaga’s star freshman won’t be as productive on the surface as Banchero in the points and rebounding department, but his impact on the game is more spread out and harder to find.

How badly has a team like the Pelicans needed a shot-blocking, floor-spacing big man to match up with Zion? Don’t be surprised if Banchero bullies Holmgren on his individual possessions at T-Mobile Arena, but past evidence suggests he won’t back down from the challenge, talking a little trash along the way. While it’s early and there’s still a lot to learn, I’d bet on Holmgren’s length, shot blocking, throws, passes and businesslike attitude if he were on the clock with the first overall pick.