What’s next for Juan Soto?
There are building blocks to nearly every player trade, and the final transaction usually relies on a slow, methodical process through which the teams involved evaluate, theorize, exchange concepts and “negotiate.”
But as Juan Soto’s talks unfold and Washington general manager Mike Rizzo weighs his options, Rizzo’s teammates say he has a long history of moving quickly and decisively. What Rizzo tends to do, rival executives say, is identify prospects he wants from a particular organization and then focus his negotiations with that team.
“We wanted to talk about [Max] Scherzer and [Trea] Turner,” said one National League executive, “but it seemed like we weren’t even allowed in the room.” It seemed like Rizz had decided he wanted Keibert Ruiz and then worked with the Dodgers.”
If Soto’s talks play out similarly, then, what will matter most in these negotiations is who Rizzo wants to augment the Nationals organization. The message other Washington clubs have received is that the team wants Major League-ready players, young players on cheap contracts who are already in the Majors or close to debuting.
Soon, rival executives will determine whether Rizzo, who did not return a message for this article, prefers shortstop C.J. Abrams and/or pitcher Mackenzie Gore, who might be the best trade chips the Padres are willing to offer. Or would Rizzo rather look at the voluminous wave of position-player prospects the Cardinals could offer, from Nolan Gorman to Jordan Walker to Dylan Carlson? And there are other options that could be available, if Rizzo prefers to try to attempt a deal around Yankees prospect Anthony Volpe or Marco Luciano of the Giants.
Regardless of who is included, a deal for Soto is a real possibility before the Aug. 2 trade deadline, according to several rival executives, in part because his trade value will only decrease year-over-year. Incoming owners may want Soto’s situation resolved, one way or another, before taking over the team, lest they be left with the unpleasant task of trading a future Hall of Famer.
At least two rival executives believe this is just a “dry run” for the Nationals, a time to gather information for when Washington is better prepared to make what will be a monumental trade.
Soto, 23, could become the most important young player traded since 24-year-old Babe Ruth was traded from the Red Sox to the Yankees in December 1919. Soto’s plate discipline separates him from the best hitters of this era, and most eras; so far in his career, he has more bases on balls than strikeouts, with a career adjusted OPS+ of 160, better than most all-time greats. Henry Aaron’s career adjusted OPS+ was 155; Stan Musial’s was 159.
Soto would be a great fit for all teams, of course, including small-market teams. As one executive noted, the fact that Soto is not committed to a massive long-term deal means that even teams with the most modest budgets could participate. Taking on Soto’s remaining salary wouldn’t ruin payroll: he’s making $17.1 million this year and is arbitration-eligible; he could see salary jumps in the $23 million to $24 million range next year and close to $30 million in 2024 before hitting free agency.
“You saw in the spring how the Rays tried to sign Freddie Freeman,” one evaluator noted. “Any team could acquire Soto and instantly make their lineup much better.”
The Padres are viewed by rival executives as perhaps the most motivated team in the trade market, with an aggressive, all-out gamble mentality. Owner Peter Seidler has bankrolled one of the highest payrolls in baseball, featuring Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr, and the club has had internal discussions about pursuing some of the biggest names in free agency in the coming years, so presumably, they would be willing to trade prospects for Soto. Seidler has become the Mike Ilitch of his generation, dedicated to the idea of building a winner for his city, even if that means spending beyond industry expectations for his team.
There are plenty of other contenders: the Blue Jays, in the midst of a window of opportunity for their young core of players, desperately need a left-handed hitter to complement right-handed slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr.