What Lonzo Ball’s injury means

Is Lonzo Ball’s decision to undergo surgery to treat a small meniscus tear in his left knee threatening the Chicago Bulls’ surprisingly strong season?

The Bulls and Ball had hoped to treat the injury with rest and rehab, but when that treatment strategy was unsuccessful, they resorted to a standard arthroscopic procedure that, according to the team, would sideline Ball for six to eight weeks. Recall that Alex Caruso will miss, also, six to eight weeks. So the problem is twofold.

Though overshadowed by Chicago’s addition of DeMar DeRozan, Ball’s defense, shooting and playmaking have also helped the Bulls move from the lottery to leading the Eastern Conference. Chicago, which also played without All-Star point guard Zach LaVine, missed the first two games Ball missed due to a knee injury before bouncing back to beat the Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday.

With the East standings crowded behind Chicago, the Miami Heat are tied in the standings but percentage points behind the Bulls, with the Brooklyn Nets a half-game behind both teams and three other contenders within 2.5 games of even a short run. Ball’s absence could make a big difference in terms of seed.

Let’s take a look at the implications of Ball missing the next few weeks for Chicago.

Expect a defensive slump for the Bulls.
The most surprising aspect of Chicago’s strong start was the team’s solid defense. As recently as Christmas, the Bulls ranked in the top 10 in the league in defensive rating, reaching ninth place with 107.5 points allowed per 100 possessions according to NBA Advanced Stats.

The next day, Ball entered health and safety protocols, missing the next five games. Not long after his return, defensive stalwart Alex Caruso was also lost due to health and safety protocols.

With limited minutes from Ball and Caruso, Chicago’s defense has struggled. Since Dec. 26, the Bulls have allowed 115.0 points per 100 possessions, a mark that ranks 22nd in the NBA. Chicago has barely outscored its opponents in that span despite a top-10 offensive rating, relying on DeRozan’s decisive heroics to go 9-5 and remain atop the East.

Admittedly, Caruso has had a bigger defensive impact than Ball. The Bulls defense is allowing 10.5 more points per 100 possessions with Caruso on the bench, according to NBA Advanced Stats, the third largest difference among players with at least 600 minutes this season. However, Chicago’s defense has really crumbled without Ball or Caruso on the court, as we saw during the first two games that Ball missed. In 987 possessions without them, the Bulls’ defensive rating ranks in the fourth percentile among all lineups league-wide according to Cleaning the Glass data.

Unlike many defensive splits, this one isn’t due to the opponent’s fortuitous shots. Instead, the problem is that Chicago can’t stop teams from getting to the rim without Ball or Caruso defending at the point of attack. According to Cleaning the Glass, nearly 40% of opponents’ shot attempts have gone around the rim in these minutes, a rate that ranks in the second percentile across the league. In minutes Ball has played without Caruso, that drops to 35.5% as the Bulls’ defense improves to league average.

Bulls coach Billy Donovan won’t want to overload Caruso, whose 28 MPJ is already a career high. As a result, expect a lot of games in the coming weeks in which the Bulls are without any of their top perimeter defenders.

Chicago’s depth will be tested.
In addition to Ball’s specific value, losing him for an extended period is also painful because the Bulls’ injuries are mounting. They have played most of the season without forward Patrick Williams, whose wrist surgery could sideline him for the remainder of the schedule.

Chicago also lost the two players who replaced Williams in the lineup: first, Javonte Green (who is close to returning from an adductor strain) and, most recently, Derrick Jones Jr., who will miss two to four weeks because of a bone bruise in his knee he suffered last week. Tyler Cook, who is on a two-way contract, rejoined the lineup alongside Caruso on Wednesday. LaVine’s sore knee isn’t expected to sideline him for long, but he won’t travel with the Bulls for a three-game road trip that begins Friday in Milwaukee.

The combination of injuries has left Alfonzo McKinnie, who initially signed a hardship deal before signing a minimum contract that is now guaranteed for the rest of the season, as Donovan’s starting power forward. In addition, 26-year-old rookie Malcolm Hill, another struggling signee who got a two-way contract, has been getting rotation minutes off the bench.

Until a streak of four straight losses that included lopsided defeats to the Nets and Golden State Warriors at home, Chicago had been able to keep things close. The team won nine in a row after returning from an eight-day hiatus caused by several players entering health and safety protocols, and five of those wins came when Ball was unavailable.

It helped that Coby White was ready to increase his minutes just as Ball and Caruso missed time. While White is not the point-of-attack defender they are, he is scoring more efficiently than at any time during his first two seasons. White is hitting a career-high 40% of his three-point attempts and is shooting a career-best 53% inside the arc.

In addition, the Bulls have received valuable contributions from second-round pick Ayo Dosunmu, another quality perimeter defender that Donovan can employ. Dosunmu fell to the second round due to concerns about translating his offense, but he played within his limitations and hit 46% of his limited 3-point attempts, much better than his 34.5% career accuracy from the NCAA’s shortest line.

Still, Ball’s absence puts more pressure on Chicago’s remaining perimeter players to stay healthy until he returns. At some point, the Bulls’ depth could be stretched too thin.

Why every game counts toward the playoff standings.
Fortunately, Ball should be back before the end of the regular season. However, his injury could be felt come playoff time in terms of where Chicago is seeded. The race among the six East teams that would advance directly to the first round if the season ended today is already tight and looks to remain so.

FiveThirtyEight’s projections have the top five seeds in the East finishing separated by three wins overall, with Chicago last among this group with an average final record of 48-34, two games better than Cleveland, the other surprise team so far.

Falling to fifth would cost the Bulls home-court advantage in the first round and would also mean a tougher first-round matchup than if they could hang on to one of the top two seeds and face one of the teams advancing in the play-in. tournament.

With nearly half of Chicago’s schedule remaining (the Bulls have played just 43 games, tied for the second-lowest total in the league), there are plenty of shifts left in the battle for playoff qualification in the East. The Bulls are hopeful they can handle Ball’s absence well enough to take advantage of the next one.