What do the analytics say about O’Malley vs. Will you see 2 at UFC 299?

What does the analysis say about the championship fight between bantamweight champion Sean O’Malley and Ecuadorian Marlon ‘Chito’ Vera at UFC 299? Using predictive models independent of the betting lines, we examine what the matchup of champions looks like from a favorability perspective.

Basically, is this a good matchup for the champion or the challenger? The data considers each fighter’s performance metrics inside the octagon and selects factors about the fighter outside the cage. The higher the score, the more favorable the matchup for the current champion.

These evaluations do not indicate how to bet the fight, but only the relative favorability ranging from the riskiest matchup to the best.

Kuhn on what the numbers mean: O’Malley’s accuracy on power punches is off the charts, possibly the best in the UFC right now. And he can lead the action with the reach of him. However, Vera’s takedown rate is much higher and he has more experience in championship rounds. While O’Malley will be the favorite, Vera will certainly have a chance with his punch. With 19 takedowns between them, there should be fireworks in this rematch.