UFC Fight Night expert predictions: Can Michelle Waterson dictate the pace of the fight against Marina Rodriguez?

Saturday’s UFC Fight Night main event will feature a pair of strawweight contenders competing at flyweight in a five-round fight that was finalized on short notice.

As announced Tuesday, Marina Rodriguez (13-1-2) and Michelle Waterson (18-8) will be the headliners at the Apex facility in Las Vegas. Former bantamweight champion TJ Dillashaw was originally going to headline the card, but was forced to pull out of a scheduled fight against Cory Sandhagen due to injury.

Obviously, the circumstances surrounding the new main event are less than ideal, but it’s an important matchup. Although it will be contested at 125 pounds, the outcome will have a big impact on the UFC’s 115-pound rankings, where Rodriguez and Waterson are currently ranked six and nine, respectively.

Who has the advantage? ESPN asked several experts for their analysis and predictions.

UFC strawweight Carla Esparza (defeated Waterson in May 2020, defeated Rodriguez in July 2020).
On the feet, I feel Rodriguez definitely has a boxing advantage. Waterson landed some kicks and my leg was black and blue, but Rodriguez has a reach and power advantage.

As for the wrestling, I see Waterson trying to take the fight to the ground. She has good takedowns and I’ve seen her land, it’s just a matter of closing that gap, which is difficult because she likes to stay within range of her kicks. But if she’s able to create that body clash, she could take Rodriguez to the canvas.

I don’t see Rodriguez as a fighter who likes to sprawl and get back to her feet, but is content to fight on her back. That’s not to say she’s not fierce from her back. Even when you knock her down, she is a very aggressive and violent person. She cut my eyebrow with an elbow from there. I’ve seen all her fights and she always elbows someone and cuts them open. I don’t see this fight ending without some blood.

It’s tough because it’s MMA and this fight could be anyone’s, but I’ll probably go with Rodriguez. She looks like the hungrier and super vicious fighter.