UFC 261 predictions: Will Jorge Masvidal change the equation in rematch against Kamaru Usman?

UFC welterweight champion Kamaru Usman will defend his title against Jorge Masvidal for the second time in just nine months on Saturday in the main event of UFC 261 in Jacksonville.

Incidentally, although this is their second meeting in a short time, the circumstances of the fight are drastically different. Usman (18-1) defeated Masvidal (35-14) by unanimous decision at UFC 251 last July, but Masvidal accepted the fight on six days’ notice after Usman’s original opponent, Gilbert Burns, was pulled from the event. After Usman’s last win, the champion called Masvidal to the fight in hopes that he could “break him” this time, as he wasn’t satisfied with the decision victory.

Will a full camp (for both fighters) result in a very different fight? ESPN asked several experts for their analysis and predictions.

Aljamain Sterling, UFC bantamweight champion:

Masvidal is a very tough guy, he’s been around a long time. The only thing that concerns me is that yes, he’s had more time to train, but I don’t know if anything necessarily changes [in the outcome]. I think Usman is too good in a lot of those situations.

While Masvidal is good with his kicks, if he starts kicking like he did in the last fight, I could see Usman knocking him down the same way he did the first time. All Usman has to do is take the pain, catch the kick and choke him out again. I also think things will be a little different as Usman also has a full camp to set him up. The first time was a short notice fight for both of them.

Masvidal has fast hands, he’s knocked out Darren Till, Donald Cerrone, Ben Askren. The guy is unpredictable, but it’s hard to bet against Usman right now. I think he’s hitting his best form, giving flashes of Georges St-Pierre level. I think everyone is beatable, but the fight is Usman’s to win again.

Sayif Saud, Fortis MMA:

They can dress this up all they want, but Usman’s mental game is second to none. He brings intelligence and intensity to everything he does. And if you think he asked for this fight by accident, you don’t know what you’re talking about.

If you had told me Usman was going to drop Gilbert Burns with a jab and then knock him out with his hands, that shows how smart Usman is. He was beaten in the first round. He was beaten. He bounced back like a true champion and came up with a completely different strategy and won in a matter of two rounds. It reminds me of when Henry Cejudo was beaten by Marlon Moraes in the first round of their title fight, Moraes was beating him and Cejudo made the decision “No, not today.” Kamaru has the same level of champion.

I think Kamaru is going to dominate Masvidal. And yes, he was able to get caught by some punches, if you want to bloody his nose and take credit, great, but that first fight was against Kamaru at his worst. He didn’t fight well at all. And people really aren’t talking about that. If you look at his work, that was a really bad night for him. I think he wants to redeem that with a dominant performance, and I think he’ll do exactly that. It’s too much for Masvidal, it just is.

Dan Hardy, UFC welterweight:

The smart thing for Masvidal to do is to make the most of the short bursts of action he gets in the fight. If you look at the first round of the last, he was able to get off the fence several times. When he creates space, he has to attack, and he has to have a fairly high volume of varied attack, because the rest of the time he’s probably going to be controlled by Usman against the fence.

For Usman, it’s all about getting close to Masvidal without taking punishment, and the more he does that, the easier it will be in the later rounds to work his jab. My concern for Usman is that he has this new confidence in his jab, because he just stopped Gilbert Burns, and as we saw in Masvidal’s knockout over Darren Till, the more you give Masvidal space, the more he starts to figure out your game and punish you. So, I think Usman needs to take that space away from Masvidal, crowd him against the fence, and if he wants to control him on the ground, he needs to get him away from the fence.

Masvidal’s takedown defense is about 75%, I think, but against the fence he’s considerably better. And he’s also better moving, and attacking, from there. Masvidal has good elbows on breaks along the fence and has used his flying knees throughout his career. If he’s aggressive with his takedown defense, if that makes sense, I think he’ll be able to create windows of opportunity where he can affect Usman.

But realistically, if I see them fight 10 times, I think Usman wins seven or eight of them, and I like him to take another decision in the rematch.