Suns close or far from the championship?

The Phoenix Suns team that reached the NBA Finals in 2021 has slowly drifted away from reaching that goal in the two years since, losing in the Western Conference semifinals for the second straight year. Even after signing Kevin Durant at the NBA trade deadline, the Suns failed to live up to expectations of being a championship contender. Suns management will have to make a decision on whether to continue with the current core with veteran point guard Chris Paul in a critical veteran leadership position, or move in a new direction.

The state of the roster
Even with the addition of Durant, the Suns are further away from competing for a championship than the previous two seasons. The second-round series loss to Denver proved that. Durant and Devin Booker are franchise players, but the Nuggets exposed a top-heavy Phoenix roster that lacks significant depth. However, the reality is that Phoenix is limited in how it can improve its roster in the offseason. It is approaching os $179.5 million and will likely not have the $5 million taxpayer mid-level exception available (to be fair, Phoenix had access to the $6.4 million tax mid-level last year and did not use it).

The Suns also do not have a first-round pick in June, nor are they allowed to trade a future first-round pick in any deal. The offseason plan consists of three options. They can take the same approach as last year and fill the roster with players signed at the veteran minimum. That carries a big risk given that neither Durant, Booker and Paul reached the 60-game mark this season. Since returning from his Achilles injury in 2020, Durant has played 137 games in three seasons.

The second option would be to bring back forwards Josh Okogie and Torrey Craig and center Jock Landale, then try to find bargains in free agency. Landale and Craig have Early Bird rights, and Phoenix can sign either player to a contract worth up to $11.9 million and a minimum of two seasons. Landale is also a restricted free agent.

Okogie signed a one-year minimum contract and cannot sign a contract exceeding $2.8 million. The third option would be to explore trades involving Paul, Deandre Ayton, Landry Shamet or Cameron Payne. Because of its finances, Phoenix cannot recoup more than 110% of salary and faces restrictions on making any type of sign-and-trade deal that would attract a free agent. For example, a hypothetical trade that would send Ayton and Paul to the Dallas Mavericks for Tim Hardaway Jr. and a signed-and-traded Kyrie Irving would not be allowed because it triggers the $169 million cap hit.

Offseason finances
The Suns have only seven players under contract, but once again project to be on the tax. The reason is that four of those players (Booker, Durant, Ayton and Paul) combine to earn 87% of the Suns’ $164 million committed payroll. Paul’s $30.8 million has $15.8 million in salary protection with the balance guaranteed on June 28.

Payne’s $6.5 million contract is guaranteed on June 30. If Payne is waived, Phoenix would incur a $2 million hit to the salary cap. In the unlikely scenario that both Paul and Payne are waived, Phoenix would still be over the salary cap and would only have the $12.2 million non-contributing mid-level exception and the $4.5 million semi-annual exception to use in free agency.

Top front office priority.
Start with Paul. The 38-year-old point guard will most likely be on the Suns’ roster entering free agency. Putting Paul on waivers would save the Suns some luxury tax money, but it would also eliminate a tradable contract, and a player who can still contribute when healthy. There is a scenario in which Phoenix could waive Paul and then sign him at part of his $12.2 million non-tax mid-level. That, however, would limit the team if the contract is for more than $5 million, possibly costing the free agent.

Paul finished the season fifth in assists and Phoenix averaged 123.8 points per 100 possessions when he was on the court during the playoffs with Booker and Durant. That ranked in the 96th percentile of all postseason lineups, according to Cleaning the Glass. The concern, however, is the veteran’s durability. Paul played 59 games in the 2022-23 season, the fewest since 2018-19. His $30 million salary for 2024-25 is not guaranteed. Next is gauging trade options for Ayton. The Suns should explore trading him and his $32.5 million salary for several players to help balance the roster.

Ayton is coming off a season in which he averaged 18.0 points, the second-highest mark of his career, and more than nine rebounds for the fifth consecutive season. However, he’s something of an afterthought when sharing the court with Paul, Durant and Booker. Ayton averaged 82.7 touches per 100 possessions this season, according to Second Spectrum. But when sharing the floor with Paul, Booker and Durant, that figure dropped to 70.9. His average touch duration and dribbles per touch were also down compared to his regular-season averages.