Seattle vs Toronto: a close series
The Mariners took the series between them in the regular season, beating the Blue Jays in 5 of the 7 games.
The games were mostly close, with only one of them being decided by five or more runs, which bodes well for a close series that could go down to the wire.
A key aspect to watch in the series is Toronto’s offense against the Mariners bullpen. Toronto led all of baseball in average exit velocity (90.0) while Seattle’s relievers led all of MLB in average exit velocity allowed (86.2).
Bookmaker Caesars Sportsbook favors Toronto (-140) over Seattle (+130) to win this series.
Our experts analyze and answer the hottest questions in this series.
MLB Playoffs 2022: How to watch the Wild Card Round on ESPN Deportes
1- Who comes in better and why?
Buoyed by the bat of rookie Julio Rodriguez, the Mariners advanced to the postseason for the first time in two decades, but their trip might be limited to a couple of days at the Rogers Centre, the home of the Blue Jays, one of the best teams in Major League Baseball, who just now are playing their best ball of the year.
Seattle’s pitching, which had the fifth lowest ERA in the young circuit, will have to be sharp against Toronto’s powerful artillery, led by George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero and Bo Bichette, starting with right-hander Luis Castillo (2.99 EFE in 150.1 IL), the opener of the first game.
The Blue Jays won 92 games, including 46 of 74 (.622) since replacing Charlie Montoyo with John Schneider in the manager’s job, and were in second place behind the New York Yankees in the American League East Division.
Since July 10, when they were 16.5 games out of first place, the Blue Jays have erased nearly 10 games of New York’s lead. Backed by an offense that led the league in batting average, OBP and OPS, and was second in runs, Toronto was 22-11 since Sept. 1 to, in addition to qualifying, secure home-field advantage in the first round.
Seattle’s big problem is that Toronto can also pitch adequately. Alek Manoah, their Game 1 starter, was one of the best pitchers in MLB all year.
2- Who (or which one) will be the X-factor in the series?
Seattle: Julio Rodriguez. The Dominican rookie sensation hit .182 (11-2) at the Rogers Centre and is coming off another stint on the injured list to make his playoff debut. Won’t that be too much pressure for him? Regardless of his numbers (.284, 28 homers, 75 RBI, .509 slugging in 132 games) Rodriguez seems to be used to stealing the show, so it shouldn’t surprise anyone that he’s decisive even in a park that didn’t favor him during the season.
Toronto: George Springer. On a team that led the American League in collective batting, batting average, slugging, and collective OPS and third in home runs, there are several players who could emerge as heroes of this first three-game series at Rogers Centre. It’s no guessing game to select among these Springer, the 2017 World Series Most Valuable Player, who already 19 home runs and 38 tows in October. Springer has proven to be a big-time player and can at least be a good influence on the Blue Jays’ young stars.
3- (Julio Rodriguez-Luis Castillo) or (Vladdy Jr-Jose Berrios): Which duo will be more decisive?
Rodriguez and Castillo. The Mariners should not only be considered the ‘Cinderella’ of the playoffs next to the Guardians, but rather a great team. They hold to the popular motto of the Emmy-winning series Ted Lasso: ‘Believe’. And when you believe in yourself, great things happen.
Rodriguez averaged .383 batting in all of September and .455 in his series against the Tigers now in October. He has the ‘hunger’ to conquer the majors. Castillo, meanwhile, is in charge of opening that first game against the Blue Jays. The $108 million for five years is a vote of confidence from the team, which brought him now in the trade market. He had a 2.99 ERA.
I’m leaning towards both because, although Vladdy Jr’s bat is unquestionable, it’s not entirely clear if Berrios will have a series opener. Let’s remember that, due to his 5.23 ERA, he is no longer either the first or second starter. We will have to see what John Schneider does. But this is a short series of whoever wins two games. I repeat, the key will be Castillo’s game.
