Not expected to be so far down: Lakers

This situation tends to become more palpable, and even more so, if the team that suffers from it is historically accustomed to having more successes than failures.

Criticism of the system, of the roster, of the players’ attitude, of the coaching staff, are the first necessary step to end up leading to a crisis if the course does not begin to be reversed with consistent and not sporadic victories.

The Los Angeles Lakers find themselves in this phase today. A crossroads in which the present marks a mediocre reality, with resounding falls, such as the one suffered against Denver on January 15 or the one on January 19 at home against Indiana (16-29) and a few victories of those that lift the internal spirit and help to silence the critics.

What has happened since GM Rob Pelinka assembled the team to reach this pale record of 22 wins and 23 losses? What is the main reason for this poor performance and what could be the tools the franchise has to correct the course?

Let’s take it one step at a time.

Is the problem with the roster, injuries or both?
When the team was assembled, the bookmakers in Las Vegas reacted immediately and put the Lakers as the strong contenders to win the title. But bettors seem to be unable to distinguish between a roster with big names and one with players who help give a team its identity.

With the new roster, the evergreen LeBron James-led squad radically changed its DNA: from being able to boast an elite defense, it went from being able to admit its remarkable defensive fragility.

The loss of three good perimeter defenders such as Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Kyle Kuzma (in the trade for Russell Westbrook) and Alex Caruso (not renewed in free agency) gave porosity to the defensive structure they had been able to build.

It is no coincidence that the points allowed per 100 possessions has increased considerably in the last two seasons. When they were champions in 2020, they allowed 106.3 points per 100 possessions, a figure that increased to 107.1 in 2021 to reach 110.1 this season. Add to that the fact that the offensive rating dropped from 112.0 when they won the title to the current 108.7, and we find conclusive answers as to the reasons for their current mediocrity.

It is true that injuries have played their part. Only Russell Westbrook has perfect attendance this season by playing all 45 games on the schedule. LeBron James has missed 12 games, Anthony Davis 18, Trevor Ariza 34, while Avery Bradley missed 8 and Dwight Howard 10. Not to mention Kendrick Nunn (an interesting bet during free agency) who has yet to play his first official game. But injuries are part of the game, especially in pandemic times.

The best answer to the question posed above is that both factors played a role, but the loss of the defensive DNA that characterized the Lakers in previous seasons did more damage than the absences.

Was the trade for Russell Westbrook a mistake?
With Monday’s paper under our arms we are all guessers. That said, it’s easy to conclude that what was a strong and intriguing gamble has turned into a failed experiment. At least so far.

What happened in the home loss to a mediocre Indiana Pacers, confirms it: the point guard did not play the last 3 minutes and 52 seconds of the game when it was necessary to come back from a 7-point deficit and try to win the game.

For the moment, Russell Westbrook has shown more consistently his weaknesses such as his permeable defense, his tendency to lose the ball risking more than necessary (4.2 per game) and his lack of effectiveness in his outside shooting (30.4% in three-pointers with 3.5 attempts per game and 66.8% from the free throw line in 5.2 shots per game average), than in his virtues.

Although this season he leads Nicola Jokic in the triple-double statistic with 9 in total, the fact of filling three boxes with double digits did not always transform them into automatic victories for the Lakers point guard. In fact, in those 9 games the point guard had 5 losses. And although it is true that he is the best rebounder of the team (8.0 per game) and the best assist man (7.8), he is also the one who loses more balls per game (4.2).

But perhaps the worst part of the case is not on the court, but off the court. The Lakers absorbed a contract for which they must pay him 44.2 million this season and 47.0 million next season (with an option in favor of the player), which makes the possibility of changing him before February 10, when the deadline for changes expires, practically utopian. The cost-benefit ratio is the biggest impediment.

Therefore, Lakers fans better not get their hopes up about the possibility of the point guard being the bargaining chip in a trade that would help bring in another All-Star to play alongside LeBron and Davis.

Could a coaching change be a solution?
Rumors that Frank Vogel would be on the hot seat and after the shocking 37-point loss to Denver Nuggets would be evaluated on a game-by-game basis have become ubiquitous in the air. And while sources from different sectors of the press range from those who claim that Vogel’s continuity could be in jeopardy, others go the other way, arguing that the Lakers are not thinking about such a solution. At least for now, although they are following the story closely.

According to a report from ESPN’s Dave McMenamin,after the loss to Indiana, Vogel was given the green light by management to sit Westbrook in the final minutes of games if necessary as happened in the game against Pacers.

“You have to do what you have to do to win,” would have been the message.

“I just used the players I thought were the right players to win the game,” Vogel maintained after the game, while LeBron James avoided delving into the topic by answering one question with another: “Do you guys think that can affect Russ’ mind?” he said in a dodgy manner.

However, the reaction to such rumors of a possible coaching change was not long in coming. Chris Mannix, a Sports Illustrated reporter, said ironically on his Twitter account that “Frank Vogel is the 47th reason why the Lakers are struggling.” By the same route, former coach and now TV commentator Stan Van Gundy called such a possibility ridiculous, recalling that less than two years ago it was Vogel who was the coach that made the Lakers champions. And he ended up taking a shot at the front office by arguing that “firing Frank would be nothing more than an attempt to find a scapegoat to cover up mistakes others made.”

Criticism of Vogel comes on the side of his rotations, for insisting on using DeAndre Jordan as a starter and giving Avery Bradley multiple minutes. But he cannot be criticized for trying different recipes to correct the course.

Defensively, he is still searching for an identity, although it is difficult to find it. With LeBron as a pivot, the paint has no one to defend it and opponents find a way to attack the rim and get easy baskets. If they include a pivot to patrol the inside zone, they weaken the perimeter defense where they lack good defenders especially when Westbrook and Malik Monk (one of their most consistent scorers) share the court. They even tried zone defense. As you can see, defensively the Lakers are a short sheet: if they cover their heads, their feet are exposed and vice versa.

For all these reasons, changing coaches in the middle of the river is not advisable. Whoever is chosen to eventually replace Vogel would encounter the same problems: those of a poorly assembled team with little chance of rebuilding on the fly.

Is there a possible solution at the transfer deadline?
The possibility of making changes that would help improve the roster seems remote at this point. The Lakers only have in Talen Horthon-Tucker ($9.5 million) and Kendrick Nunn ($5.0 million) the only pieces that could give them the possibility of bringing in a player to help right the ship. But the former hasn’t made the leap in quality they envisioned, while Nunn hasn’t played a game yet.

The Lakers also have no draft picks to offer: just a few second-rounders available (which aren’t exactly going to help bring in a star) and the closest available first-round pick is for 2027.

With Westbrook all but bolted to the team’s future (at least for this season) because of his salary, the chances of trying for something big before Feb. 10 are slim to none. Don’t forget that the franchise must pay luxury tax for going over the maximum allowed in salary cap space.

Therefore, one can only hope for some marginal transfer and, in the best case, wait for the cut market to try to find the help they need.

Today the Lakers have more doubts than certainties. They are eighth in the standings, closer to 11th place (which could doom them to be a lottery team in the next draft than first place in the conference). They have a 5-game lead over Sacramento, but 12.5 games separate them from Phoenix, the leader in the West.

In addition, they have one of the most demanding schedules in the second half of the season. Of 37 pending games, 23 are against teams with a 50% or better record and they will have to play more games away from home (23) than at home (15). On top of that, this Friday they start a tour of 6 away games in 9 nights. However, with LeBron and Anthony Davis healthy, the team should at least find a way to enter the playoffs.

Magic Johnson came out days ago with his usual tweeting verbiage to say that Jennie Buss (the face of the franchise) deserves better than what the team is showing today. Russell Westbrook went against him by arguing that while Magic is entitled to his opinion, he doesn’t know how hard the team is trying to correct course because he’s not at practice.

Is there time to improve? The answer is yes, but there is also time to continue thinking that this team is not even close to aspiring to win a championship as it did in 2020.

This story started a few months ago with Las Vegas bettors putting their money on the Lakers being the team to beat this season. But the Lakers are a far cry from that original vision.

It’s just that dreams don’t always go hand in hand with reality.