NBA MVP Poll: Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid

Last season, the Denver Nuggets’ Nikola Jokic edged out Philadelphia 76ers big man Joel Embiid in the final weeks of the NBA regular season to win the Most Valuable Player award, as injuries to Embiid and Los Angeles Lakers small forward LeBron James cleared the way for Jokic to become the first center to win the award since Shaquille O’Neal in 2000.

As the 2021-22 regular season ends, it appears Jokic has the lead in the race to repeat the award.

After Jokic finished just behind Embiid in the previous edition of the poll in mid-February, the four-time All-Star garnered 62 of 100 first-place votes in ESPN’s third and final MVP poll, giving Jokic a clear, albeit narrow, lead over Embiid and Milwaukee Bucks power forward Giannis Antetokounmpo, the last player to win back-to-back MVP awards.

To gauge where the race stands with less than two weeks remaining in the regular season, ESPN asked 100 members of the media to participate in an informal poll that mimics postseason awards voting. To make the voting as realistic as possible, there were at least two voters from each of the league’s 28 markets, as well as a cross-section of national and international reporters. Votes were collected Thursday through Saturday.

As with the NBA’s official end-of-season voting, voters were asked to submit a ballot of five players and the results were tabulated using the league’s scoring system: 10 points for each first-place vote, followed by seven points for second place, five points for third, three points for fourth and one point for fifth.

Jokic finished ahead of the pack with those 62 first-place votes and a total of 860 points, followed by Embiid, who earned 29 first-place votes and 719 total points, and Antetokounmpo, who earned nine first-place votes and 593 total points. They were the only players to be named on all 100 ballots and the only players to receive a first-place vote.

Jokic, Embiid and Antetokounmpo have separated themselves so clearly from the rest of the field that they claimed 291 of the 300 first-, second- and third-place votes in the poll (Antetokounmpo earned six fourth-place votes and Jokic had three fifth-place votes). No other player was named on even half of the ballots.

Following the three unanimous selections was Memphis Grizzlies point guard Ja Morant, who finished with 103 total points and received one of two second-place votes recorded for someone outside of Jokic, Embiid or Antetokounmpo (Phoenix Suns shooting guard Devin Booker received the other). Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum was fifth with 93 points, Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic was sixth with 87 points and Booker seventh with 82. Morant, Tatum and Booker were the only players to receive third-place votes outside the top three.

After leading the first edition of the poll this season, Golden State Warriors point guard Stephen Curry finished eighth with 34 points, followed by Brooklyn Nets small forward Kevin Durant (13) and Suns point guard Chris Paul (seven).

James, the NBA’s current leading scorer who did not receive a single vote in either of the first two polls, earned a fourth-place finish and two fifth-place votes to finish 11th with five points, followed by Chicago Bulls point guard DeMar DeRozan and Atlanta Hawks point guard Trae Young.

Outside of James entering the picture, the focus remains on the top of the ballot, where Jokic once again gained a slight edge heading into the final weeks of the season after he and Embiid were virtually tied six weeks ago.

Essentially, the difference this time is that Jokic took 16 of the first-place votes Embiid got in the previous poll and came back on the five ballots that left him out in that round of voting.

There is still more uncertainty left in this race than there usually is this time of year. Many voters noted how difficult it was for them to choose which way to go, both among the positioning of the top three finishers in addition to the fourth and fifth place finishers.

And while the leader in the final version of this opinion poll won the league’s MVP award the past four years, there is reason to believe that Jokic still has work to do to secure his second consecutive award.

This year’s voting more closely mirrors the 2017 race, the first year this opinion poll was conducted. In that year’s final vote, then-Houston Rockets point guard James Harden had an equally narrow lead over then-Oklahoma City Thunder point guard Russell Westbrook with a few weeks to go, only for Westbrook to capture the MVP by becoming the first player since Oscar Robertson in 1961-62 to average a triple-double in a season.

Because of how close the races are in both conferences, it’s likely that where Jokic and Embiid finish on the leaderboard will play a role in picking the MVP.

Jokic’s Nuggets are in sixth place in the Western Conference, two games ahead of the Minnesota Timberwolves in seventh and a half-game behind the Utah Jazz in fifth. The three voters who placed Jokic fifth highlighted his team’s position in the standings as a contributing factor.

In the Eastern Conference, Embiid’s 76ers and Antetokounmpo’s Bucks are in a four-team cap near the top, both one game behind the No. 1 seed Miami Heat.

Jokic averages 26.3 points, 13.6 rebounds and 8.0 assists per game, ranking 12th, second and eighth, respectively, and is the only player in the top 12 in all three categories. Embiid is averaging 29.9 points, 11.4 rebounds and 4.2 assists as he looks to become the first center to lead the NBA in scoring since O’Neal in 2000. Antetokounmpo is averaging 29.7 points, 11.6 rebounds and 5.8 assists.

All three have excelled against various challenges this season. Jokic has played virtually the entire season without the team’s two other stars, Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. Embiid had to lead the 76ers through the roller coaster that was the Ben Simmons saga, while Antetokounmpo has navigated Milwaukee through a series of injuries to key contributors, most notably center Brook Lopez.

The uncertainty at the top of the ballot is likely to extend to the rest of the roster as well: the Grizzlies announced Thursday that Morant will miss most of the final two weeks of the regular season with knee soreness.

Meanwhile, Tatum and Doncic have been two of the best players on two of the league’s best teams in recent months, while Booker has received plenty of support for how he led the Suns with Paul sidelined for more than a month due to a thumb injury before his return late last week. All three could easily overtake Morant down the stretch.

It all leaves the table set for a frenetic finish to the regular season, with plenty to play for, both as a team and as individuals.