Miguel Berchelt vs. Oscar Valdez: All experts agree it will end in knockout

Oscar Valdez vacated his featherweight title at the end of 2019 to move up in weight and challenge himself against stiffer competition. In his third fight since that decision, Valdez will face World Boxing Council world champion and ESPN No. 1 ranked junior lightweight Miguel Berchelt on Saturday in the main event of a Top Rank bill in Las Vegas.

Valdez (28-0, 22 KOs) won that featherweight world title with a second-round technical knockout over Matias Carlos Adrian Rueda in 2016 and made six defenses before moving up. As a junior lightweight, Valdez has defeated Adam Lopez and Jayson Velez, both by technical knockout, but Berchelt is the best fighter in the division and hasn’t lost a fight in nearly seven years.

“He’s a great fighter, but I consider myself a better fighter….. I really want that belt. I’m going to do whatever it takes to win,” Valdez said in Part 1 of Blood, Sweat and Tears: Berchelt vs. Valdez.

Berchelt (37-1, 33 KOs) has wins over former world junior lightweight champion Takashi Miura, Francisco Vargas (twice), Jason Sosa and title challenger Miguel Roman, among others. Four of those wins were by stoppage.

“I’m going to knock Oscar out. I’m going to beat him big time,” Berchelt said in the documentary. “I’m going to give him a poison that has no cure.”

As we await Saturday’s Mexican mega-fight, boxers and trainers familiar with the protagonists analyze the fight, describe the keys to victory and share their predictions.

How Berchelt wins: Berchelt is naturally the stronger and bigger guy. The fight is going to be an all-Mexican war. Berchelt is taller and has reach advantage, a good jab and throws good punches from the outside. He can do damage from all over. If Valdez gives him trouble by fighting on the inside, he can box from the outside and still land his punches: the long jab and the straight down the middle.

In the last two fights, Valdez didn’t look so good. With Velez, it was a tough fight and Valdez finally got him out of there. But the previous fight, against Lopez, a late replacement, Valdez went down in the second round, and I think it was a premature stoppage in the seventh round; Lopez was really good when the fight was stopped.

Berchelt is on a different level than those guys. Valdez is going to put up a fight, but Berchelt is too big and too strong for him.

How Valdez wins: Valdez has to mix it up. He has to be aggressive, but he also has to be smart, what I call smart aggressiveness. Valdez needs to box well, turn him around and never stay in front of him. However, he needs to apply pressure. Berchelt is strong and powerful. Valdez needs to throw combinations and land punches. Valdez simply can’t win the fight from the outside, he has to make it an inside fight, but by boxing his way in and moving in circles around Berchelt and never standing in front of him.

Valdez needs to do all that and add good defense, which he has probably focused on during camp working with a new trainer and learning from Canelo Alvarez, who has excellent defensive skills. It’s essential.

X Factor: Berchelt’s strength and size and Valdez’s weight change. He already fought twice at 130, but he comes from a lower weight class. He’s not a natural 130-pound fighter compared to Berchelt.

Prediction: I think Valdez shows a lot of heart and pride, but he gets stopped in the 8th round of the fight: the referee steps in and stops the fight. Berchelt by TKO, Round 8.