Lakers, playoffs and Davis injury
The Los Angeles Lakers announced Saturday that power forward Anthony Davis will miss at least four weeks before being re-evaluated due to an MCL sprain in his left knee suffered during Friday’s loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves. Davis’ absence is the latest blow to a Lakers team that has already used 15 different starting lineups this season according to Basketball-Reference.com, more than coach Frank Vogel used en route to the 2020 NBA championship.
At 16-14, the Lakers are currently three games behind a top-four spot in the West despite playing the easiest schedule in the league to date in terms of opponent and location. Without Davis, they will have a tougher time making up ground during a home time with eight of their next 11 games in Los Angeles. The Lakers will finally make up for that favorable early schedule by playing 23 of their last 37 games as visitors.
After earning their way out of the play-in tournament last season before being eliminated in the first round against the Phoenix Suns, the Lakers were hoping for an easier road this time around. How much tougher will things be without Davis? Let’s see.
Replacing Davis
Losing a player as good as Davis is always a challenge, but it’s compounded by the Lakers’ depth issues after trading for Russell Westbrook during the offseason. His absence leaves Dwight Howard and DeAndre Jordan as the only veteran centers on the roster (the Lakers also have rookie Jay Huff, who is on a two-way contract and made his second NBA appearance Friday).
To make matters worse, Howard is currently subject to NBA health and safety protocols, likely sidelining him for at least a few more days. As a result, prepare for a heavy dose of LeBron James playing center in upcoming games, which could be particularly problematic in Tuesday’s showdown against the Phoenix Suns and Deandre Ayton.
According to NBA Advanced Stats, LeBron has played 97 minutes this season without Davis, Howard and Jordan on the court. More than half of those (56) were in the last five games as Vogel experiments with smaller lineups to put more shooters and scoring on the court. While James has been more effective individually as a center, averaging 28.5 points, 8.1 rebounds and 7.4 assists per 36 minutes, all up from his season numbers, the Lakers’ offense hasn’t been particularly potent overall and they have a modest plus-0.8 net rating.
The biggest concern for the Lakers’ small forward lines in the short term will be finding enough perimeter players to fill out a rotation. Avery Bradley, Talen Horton-Tucker, Malik Monk and Austin Reeves are unavailable subject to protocols. That left the Lakers relying heavily Friday on Isaiah Thomas, making his Lakers debut after signing a 10-day contract. The Lakers aren’t the only ones affected by Covid-19 at this point, but Davis’ injury exacerbates the situation.
At some point, the Lakers will have more options with the returns of small forward Trevor Ariza and Kendrick Nunn. Ariza, in particular, will help fill the power forward spot next to LeBron in small lineups, a spot where Carmelo Anthony is currently the only legitimate option.
More wear and tear on LeBron?
Aside from the position in the West, the other potential problem with losing Davis for an extended period is the pressure it puts on James. Not only will he likely have to play more against bigger opponents on the front line, but LeBron may also end up logging more minutes to keep the Lakers’ offense afloat.
The addition of Westbrook was intended to help the Lakers stay potent without Davis and James after both stars were sidelined for a month in the second half of 2020-21, during which the team had a 7-9 record. That hasn’t proven to be the case.
During 2020-21, lineups without LeBron and AD ranked in the 15th percentile of all lineups in offensive rating and had a net minus-3.2 rating according to Cleaning the Glass, which excludes garbage time. This season, such lineups with Westbrook have been outscored by 2.8 points per 100 possessions and rank in the 30th percentile in offensive rating.
Not coincidentally, James has racked up a lot of minutes in two of the Lakers’ three games without Davis this season, all wins. He played more than 43 minutes in an overtime win at Indiana last month and 37 minutes in a home win over the Orlando Magic earlier this month, though Vogel was able to limit him to 35 minutes in a win at Oklahoma City. Playing without AD will make it much more difficult to rest LeBron over the next month.
