How the Western Conference has changed
This is not your big brother’s Western Conference. Nor your uncle’s. Maybe not even your father’s.
The West has never looked like this in NBA history. From the Denver Nuggets getting their franchise’s first No. 1 seed to the four California teams making the postseason for the first time (while the three Texas teams were sent home), this season has been unique.
Which begs the question: is this evolution in the Western Conference a true changing of the guard or a unique anomaly?
Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets are heavily committed to a roster where the average age is 27, right in their prime. All of their core players are on long-term contracts, including two-time MVP Nikola Jokic, signed through 2028.
This season, for the first time since 2010, the Kroenke family gave the green light to spending the luxury tax, clearly indicating their belief that this team can win at the highest level. That allowed the team to sign veteran free agents Bruce Brown and Jeff Green, who helped with depth and versatility.
It also led to an extension for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope after he was acquired from the Washington Wizards via trade last summer.
How long management is willing to spend on the tax (the Nuggets have done so in consecutive years only once) could determine how long Denver can stay atop the West. Jokic has many prolific years ahead of him and, with reinforcements, the Nuggets are likely to remain contenders.
Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizzlies started this season with the sixth-youngest roster in the league, with an average age of 24. For the second consecutive season, they earned the No. 2 seed in the West.
In 2021, Jaren Jackson Jr. signed a $105 million contract extension. Last year, Ja Morant signed a deal worth at least $193 million that could reach $230 million. This summer, the team will try to do it again with a nine-figure deal for Desmond Bane to keep its core secured for the long term.
Owner Robert Pera has been willing to spend in the past when the team is a contender, once ranking in the top five in payroll. New rules in the latest collective bargaining agreement make being right at the low end of the luxury tax more palpable for small-market teams, which could make the Grizzlies more comfortable being there. As long as they stay healthy, the Grizzlies are in position to stay near the top.
Sacramento Kings
The Kings made the playoffs for the first time since 2006, breaking a drought that was one of the best stories of the regular season. They began the season with the ninth-oldest team in the league, but the average age of the roster is still under 28. Star point guard De’Aaron Fox is only 25 years old and under contract until 2026.
Power forward Domantas Sabonis, whose arrival from the Indiana Pacers via trade last season was a key moment in the team’s rise, has only one season left on his contract. Veteran small forward Harrison Barnes, who has the bulk of the team’s playoff experience, is a free agent this summer.
Retaining these key players and developing recent draft picks, especially rookie Keegan Murray, will be a determining factor in the Kings staying ahead of the teams with the most resources right behind them in the West.
They have the most salary flexibility of the top three seeds, which could give them more options. Owner Vivek Ranadive has never paid the luxury tax but then again, the team hasn’t had a roster where it makes sense to do so in decades (the last time they paid it was 2004).
Cost per win
The Grizzlies paid about $2.4 million in salary per win this year, the best efficiency in the league, although they benefited from Morant and Bane being on rookie contracts. The Kings followed closely behind at $2.8 million. The Nuggets, despite paying $14 million in taxes, got $3.2 million for each of their 53 wins.
The Golden State Warriors paid about $8.1 million, including luxury tax, per win. The LA Clippers paid about $7.5 million. The Los Angeles Lakers paid about $4.6 million to finish in the playoffs. The Dallas Mavericks, who won only 38 games and finished 11th, spent $6.5 million per win.
These figures underscore just how excellent a season the Nuggets, Grizzlies and Kings had.
Of course, there were all sorts of factors, from injuries to trades to luck, that influenced the final standings.
The Kings, for example, only lost players for a combined total of 76 games due to injuries, the lowest number in the league. Meanwhile, the Suns, Warriors, Clippers and Lakers lost several of their stars for much of the regular season.
Final point.
In the end, the three new faces at the top built a better mousetrap…this season.
A year after the Warriors won the title with a $345 million payroll, triggering a wave of new rules in the upcoming CBA that limits the teams that spend the most, it’s remarkable how the regular season played out.
No set of circumstances in a complex 30-team league is repeatable. Money often wins out. The injury bug carries over. But there’s no doubt that this season served as a palate cleanser in the West and will likely change the natural order for at least a while.
