Give Kawhi a long-term contract?

Things can change tremendously fast when it comes to roster construction in the NBA.

Just a month ago, many were wondering if the LA Clippers’ championship window was ready to close. The team was trailing the Dallas Mavericks 2-0 in their first round series and losing 30-11 in Game 3.

After bouncing back to win that series, the Clippers were again down 2-0 to the Utah Jazz in the second round and on the brink of an offseason filled with questions and doubts.

Instead, the perception of the Clippers roster now is a team that was resilient and mentally tough enough to make it to the Western Conference Finals against the Phoenix Suns without their best player, Kawhi Leonard, who sat out the final eight games of the postseason because of a right knee injury.

Now that the Clippers are moving into offseason mode, the big questions begin with Leonard’s health and contract status.

Kawhi Leonard
In December, Leonard was asked about his player option in 2021-22. “Obviously, if I’m healthy, the best decision is to decline the player option,” Leonard said. “But that doesn’t mean I’m leaving or staying. I’m focused on the season, like I said. We’ll talk about that when the time is right.”

Before he sprained his right knee, the smart move would have been for Leonard to opt out of his $36 million contract and then sign a four-year, $181.5 million extension that would begin in 2022-23. Although Leonard would lose $3.3 million in 2021-22 (the difference between his salary and 35% of the cap), he would be rewarded with a $50.2 million salary in the final year. Because Leonard has been with the Clippers for only two years, he does not have full Bird rights. The Early Bird rule would restrict Leonard to a four-year, $176.2 million contract if he declines the option.

This same logic applies even with the injury, as Leonard still has tremendous leverage over the Clippers, who destroyed his future when they signed him and traded for Paul George two years ago. The deal for George cost them unprotected first-round picks in 2022, 2024 and 2026, and draft pick trade rights in 2023 and 2025. They recently committed $190 million to George over the next five years and have no clear path to building the roster if they don’t commit to Leonard long-term or even with the injury.

There are still risks for the Clippers in signing Leonard to a long-term contract. LA could have a contract that averages $44 million over the next four seasons if he doesn’t regain full strength. Such a contract would be uninsurable, meaning the Clippers would not be reimbursed a portion of his salary if he misses all of next season. However, the risk is warranted if Leonard returns to an All-NBA level, as Kevin Durant did with Brooklyn after missing the entire first season of his contract with the Nets.

Leonard can also take the short-term route by declining his $36 million option and signing a two-year, $80.6 million contract with a second-year player option. Leonard would then decline the option in 2022 and sign the largest contract in NBA history: $235 million over five years. This is a high-risk approach from Leonard considering he will turn 31 in the summer of 2022 and has had two serious injuries in his career: the first in San Antonio in 2017 and now a knee with the Clippers. There’s no guarantee that $235 million is waiting for him.

What’s next with the roster?
How the Clippers take the next step with their roster depends on a healthy Leonard and how much owner Steve Ballmer is willing to spend this offseason in free agency or acquiring players in trades.

Heading into the offseason, nine of the Clippers players who were on the roster that lost to the Suns in the conference finals are under contract for next season. Leonard and Serge Ibaka also have player options, meaning the Clippers could bring back 11 players, representing a combined salary of $148 million, $12 million above the luxury tax line.

Because they are already over the luxury tax, the option to sign and trade is all but eliminated. For example, Ivica Zubac and Luke Kennard are not allowed to be traded to the Toronto Raptors for Kyle Lowry because the Clippers’ post-trade salary would exceed the $142 million luxury tax.