Extreme simulations about the Dodgers

Given the events of last week, the 2024 Los Angeles Dodgers season promises to be even wilder and more unpredictable than anyone could have imagined. After committing nearly $1.2 million in the offseason to sign Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto and acquiring and extending Tyler Glasnow, as well as signing Teoscar Hernandez, James Paxton and Joe Kelly, the Dodgers are the favorites to win it all. For them it’s the World Series or nothing.

However, the first two games in Korea against the San Diego Padres exposed a couple of potential concerns: First, Yamamoto has a lot to improve to justify that 12-year, $325 million contract; Secondly, defending the area could be a problem.

Still, on paper, it looks like the Dodgers could be headed for an unprecedented fourth consecutive 100-win season: My colleague Bradford Doolittle ran his projected stats for the Dodgers and in over 10,000 simulations, they won an average of 102.1 games . They also won the World Series 24.9% of the time. (We should note here: the Atlanta Braves fared a little better, averaging 102.8 wins and winning the World Series 26% of the time.)

The Dodgers could even challenge their franchise record of 111 wins from two years ago, which is tied for the fourth-most wins in MLB history. Of course, you never know, but in the simulations Brad ran, they won 117 or more games more times (373 times, or 3.7%) than they won fewer than 90 games (107, or 1.1%). It’s mind-boggling that they can have a better chance of setting the record for wins in a single season (currently 116) than winning fewer than 90 games. The trio of Mookie Betts, Ohtani and Freddie Freeman gives the offense a ridiculously high floor if all three stay healthy, and the pitching depth looks deep enough to overcome even a couple of significant injuries.

With all that said, there’s no doubt that the Dodgers will have a great run in the regular season, but we decided to really play it like it could be and ended up with some pretty interesting and fun results.

Using the game “Out of the Park Baseball,” we simulated 10 seasons of Major League Baseball using current rosters and player projections and ratings for 2024, but letting the game’s AI engine manage all teams and player moves. Players. the list. That meant call-ups to the minor leagues, when necessary, and player injuries that affected teams’ records. And the postseason? Maybe even more surprising than real life.