Devers over Betts or Bogaerts?

Why Rafael Devers — and not Mookie Betts or Xander Bogaerts?
For many in Boston, one question immediately arises: why did Devers get a mega-extension when two other homegrown superstars, outfielder Mookie Betts and shortstop Xander Bogaerts, no longer wear Red Sox uniforms?

Shortly after obtaining the team’s baseball operations position prior to the 2020 season, Chaim Bloom traded Betts when owners mandated that the Red Sox be below the luxury tax threshold. The decision to trade Betts, in Bloom’s mind, represented the best way to rebuild the farm system and reduce salary, with veteran left-hander David Price and his contract included in the deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Betts ultimately signed a 12-year, $365 million contract with the Dodgers, a contract he told ESPN in August that he would have signed in Boston, while the Red Sox received Alex Verdugo, Connor Wong and Jeter Downs, the latter of whom the team placed on assignment this offseason and was claimed by the Washington Nationals. The trade sparked a substantial backlash and remains a sore spot among fans.

Then this winter, Bogaerts, a four-time All-Star and two-time World Series champion, became a free agent after he and the team failed to reach an agreement on a contract extension before the 2022 campaign. Bogaerts had hoped to spend the rest of his career in Boston, but instead received an offer of an additional year and $30 million on top of the three years and $60 million remaining on his previous contract. The offer felt like “a slap in the face,” according to a source close to Bogaerts. Bogaerts subsequently signed an 11-year, $280 million contract with the San Diego Padres last month.

The truth is that Boston had always prioritized signing Devers over Bogaerts. Red Sox management sees Devers as a potentially generational bat. Since his MLB debut, Devers has posted a 162-game average of 103 runs, 179 hits, 44 doubles, 33 home runs, 107 RBIs and 324 total bases.

Why was it so important to make this deal now?
According to multiple sources, during the winter meetings last month, the Red Sox and Devers had a difference of more than $100 million. That was also when Bogaerts signed with the Padres. After that hit, Bloom told ESPN in December that the team would go “above and beyond what was reasonable” to try to get an extension with Devers and, ultimately, the team significantly increased its offer to bring the final total to 11 years and $331 million.

How does the Devers deal fit into Boston’s relatively frugal five-year plan?
Bloom’s hope is to rebuild the farm system and, despite the setback with Downs, there is progress on that front. Prospect first baseman Triston Casas will likely be the team’s Opening Day starter. Shortstop Marcelo Mayer is creating a lot of excitement about the team’s future at the position as both an offensive force and a defensive genius. The Ceddanne Rafaela outfielder had a great season in 2022 both offensively and defensively, batting .299/.342/.538 with 21 home runs, 28 stolen bases, 32 doubles and 10 triples in 116 games in Class A and Double-A.

The next step, according to several customer service sources? Sign some of these top young contributors to extensions before they reach arbitration. Bloom believes that offering long-term contracts to established stars until they are 40 is simply too risky an investment.

Instead, signing a player to an extension before reaching arbitration, similar to the deals given to Alex Bregman by the Houston Astros, Tim Anderson by the Chicago White Sox and Mike Trout by the Los Angeles Angels, allows both the player and the team to assume a similar amount of risk. The team gets the benefit of securing a promising young player in a deal that could be below market value, while a player secures generational money for his family before he becomes a superstar.

What is the Red Sox’ next move this offseason?
Catcher is one spot the front office identified as a potential area of improvement heading into the offseason, and the team has yet to move there. The team currently has Reese McGuire, acquired at last season’s trade deadline, and Wong, who has played just 33 games in the majors.

The Red Sox previously showed interest in getting Sean Murphy, who ended up with the Atlanta Braves, in trade and signing former Boston catcher Christian Vazquez, who is now with the Minnesota Twins. With notable free agent catchers signed, Boston would need to explore a trade.

The Red Sox could also make another move to improve their starting rotation, although the recent signing of veteran righty Corey Kluber to a one-year contract alleviated some of that need.

What can fans expect from the team this season?
Red Sox management, at least, expects this group to compete for the playoffs, but it will need a lot of things to go right.