Chances to advance to the Quarterfinals

All the Champions League Round of 16 first-leg matches have been played and FiveThirtyEight’s Soccer Power Index has shared its favorites to qualify for the next round of UEFA’s top club competition.

One of the SPI’s top favorites to advance to the Champions League Quarterfinals is Mexico’s Hirving Lozano’s Napoli. The Serie A team defeated Eintracht Frankfurt 2-0 at Deutsche Bank Park and the Mexican striker had an outstanding performance that led him to be considered the game’s Most Valuable Player. According to the Soccer Power Index, Luciano Spalletti’s team has a 98% chance of reaching the next phase of the competition.

However, above Napoli in terms of chances is Portugal’s Benfica. The Red Eagles beat Belgian side Brugge 2-0 away and the Portuguese side have a 99% chance of qualifying for the quarter-finals.

Real Madrid, like Italy’s Napoli, have a 98% chance of advancing to the round of 16 and defending their crown as European champions. Los Merengues defeated Liverpool 5-2 at Anfield and it seems very difficult for the Reds to overturn the aggregate scoreline.

Bayern Munich, who beat PSG at the Parc des Princes by the narrowest of margins, have an 86% chance of advancing to the next round of the competition, while the Parisian side led by Lionel Messi, Neymar and Kylian Mbappé have just 14%.

Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City drew 1-1 with Leipzig, however, despite the result, the Premier League side has more than a 70% chance of qualifying for the Quarterfinals.

AC Milan, who won 1-0 in the first leg, are 55% favorites over Tottenham to advance to the Quarterfinals. It should be noted that the Rossoneri have not played in the Quarter-Finals since the 2011/12 season.

The other Milanese team, Inter, defeated Porto by the minimum and SPI gives them more than a 60% chance of being one of the eight teams to advance to the next round.

As for Chelsea, a team that shelled out hundreds of millions of dollars in the last winter window, they have only a 36 percent chance of advancing to the next stage of the tournament after losing 1-0 to Borussia Dortmund.