Champions at risk of losing their title
But how would each of these headline matchups actually play out in the cage? Using predictive models independent of betting lines, we examine how each champion’s matchup appears from a favorability view. Essentially, is this a good matchup for the champion?
The data considers each fighter’s performance metrics inside the octagon and selective factors about the fighter outside the cage. The higher the score, the more favorable the matchup is for the champion.
Those scores do not indicate how to bet the fight, but only the relative favorability ranging from the riskiest matchup to the best.
Reed Kuhn and Ian Parker analyze the four championship fights scheduled for the next two months. Kuhn provides model projections for each fight, while Parker details the betting outlook.
What’s New?
Charles Oliveira vs. Islam Makhachev: 33% favorability for the champion.
What the numbers mean: This matchup looks like an uphill battle for the champ. On the one hand, he has often been underrated as an underdog. On the other hand, he arguably had a superior performance and capitalized on the mistakes of opponents who were beating him. Makhachev has dominant wrestling combined with tight defense, which will require Oliveira to find an early choke or spend a lot of time on his back.
Where bettors are leaning: In what is probably the most anticipated fight left on the schedule, if we consider Oliviera the champion (which we should), then this matchup is unfavorable for him. Granted, he won by finish in his last three fights, but he was knocked down in the first round and had to come back to win. If that happens against Makhachev, I don’t see Makhachev allowing Oliviera to bounce back and get another comeback win.
Oliveira is extremely dangerous on the ground, there’s no secret there, but he does his best work when he takes his opponent’s back, not when he fights off his own back. I think Makhachev’s ground-and-pound will be too much for Oliviera.
And yet?
Israel Adesanya vs. Alex Pereira: 64% favorability for the champion.
What the numbers mean: Some believe that a wrestling fighter will eventually stop the reigning middleweight champion and that’s not what Pereira offers. Instead, he is a pure striker who matches up quite well with Adesanya. Despite his kickboxing experience and quick start in the UFC, he has yet to be tested against elite talent. You have to think Adesanya can deal with another aggressive puncher, but you also have to admit that Pereira looks competitive on paper in an obvious striking matchup.
Where bettors are leaning: Could Pereira be the one to end Adesanya’s reign? Based on styles alone, this looks like an unfavorable matchup for the champion compared to his previous opponents. However, before we all get lost in the power of Pereira’s left hook, we must ask ourselves, does it surpass anything Adesanya has done in MMA? My answer is no. If you look back to when these two fought in kickboxing, Adesanya lost a controversial decision and was winning in the second fight until he got caught.
Since then, Adesanya has improved and has become more elusive. He takes very little damage and has fought the best in UFC, while Pereira simply hasn’t. If you’re expecting Adesanya to walk forward like Sean Strickland, guess again. I’m curious if he plans to use his wrestling, as Pereira isn’t a threat from his back. If not, it becomes a kickboxing match where it will be power vs volume. Based on his body of work and the evolution in his game, Adesanya delivers and could be the last time you can bet on him at anything less than -200.
Aljamain Sterling vs. TJ Dillashaw: 70% favorability for the champion.
What the numbers mean: Another competitive matchup on paper, this time between two successful fighters. But Sterling has spent twice as much fight time on the canvas as Dillashaw and proved that his high-pressure, long-range punches can cause trouble for anyone. Sterling will be justifiably favored, but the line won’t go very far. – Kuhn
Where bettors are leaning: Many believe Sterling will be able to outwrestle Dillashaw with his wrestling like he did against Petr Yan and retain the title. However, I don’t love this matchup for Sterling. Between the two, Dillashaw is a significantly better puncher and has the power to take his opponent down and change the pace of the fight. Dillashaw also has wrestling experience that we’ve seen him use defensively. He will have to do so throughout the fight with Sterling. If Sterling can’t get Dillashaw to the canvas or take his back, this becomes a tough fight for him as Dillashaw will tear Sterling apart on the feet.
Zhang Weili vs. Carla Esparza: 73% favorability for the champion.
What the numbers mean: We use historical data to predict the future, and sometimes blind spots can arise. Many find that boring fighters are underrated on the money lines, and Esparza is more one-dimensional than most defending champions. Zhang will certainly own the striking exchanges, but we haven’t seen much of her takedown defense that will be tested early and often. She defended three of five knockdowns of opponents in her career and had mixed results on the mat in terms of control. That could lead to models giving Esparza an unrealistically inflated chance, or it could be that there is little value in what will likely be a steep line in the challenger’s favor.
Where bettors are leaning: After competing against Rose Namajunas and losing twice, Zhang now has a much more favorable matchup in Esparza. Esparza’s only chance to win this fight is to take down Zhang, if she can. Esparza is among the best fighters in the division, but her striking isn’t threatening enough to creatively hide her takedown attempts. I expect Zhang to easily defend the wrestling (thanks to her trainer Henry Cejudo) and keep this fight standing where she can dominate Esparza. Of all the title fights, Zhang may end up being the biggest betting favorite, and rightfully so.
