Atlanta Braves this season

The 2021 Atlanta Braves were not a shocking World Series winner , although with an 88-73 regular season record, they were not a powerhouse team in the vein of recent champions like the 2016 Cubs, 2017 Astros, 2018 Red Sox or 2020 Dodgers. After all, the Braves had made the 2020 SCLN and made the playoffs in 2018 and 2019.

What is surprising is what happened given the Braves’ position on July 30. After losing to the Brewers that night, they had a 51-54 record and hadn’t spent a single day above .500. However, they were only five games behind the Mets in the NL East, so Alex Anthopoulos decided to act. After instead getting Joc Pederson a couple of weeks earlier to replace the injured Ronald Acuna Jr, Anthopoulos added three more outfielders on July 30, acquiring Jorge Soler, Adam Duvall and Eddie Rosario.

All four contributed down the stretch, a struggling bullpen suddenly got hot, the Mets collapsed, Rosario won SCLN MVP honors and Soler captured the World Series MVP trophy, and the Braves were champions for the first time since 1995.

So, the question for 2022: Who can be this year’s Braves? Which team can swing big like Anthopoulos did last year and make a run at the World Series?

There are a few candidates we’ll get to, but the clear favorite to make it happen is another National League East club, the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies are a team that hasn’t made the postseason since 2011 (believe it or not, the second longest playoff drought behind the Mariners), a third place team currently looking up at the Mets and Braves, but a team with clear strengths and obvious trouble spots to upgrade. Dave Dombrowski has been an aggressive general manager throughout his career and this is a team in absolute win-now mode. No, they probably won’t get hot enough to catch the Mets and win the division, but they can win a wild card and get hot in October.

Here’s how:

1. modeled after the Braves, the Phillies don’t have to look for a homer every move. The Braves instead didn’t get any of the biggest names in last year’s trade market, but they improved at the edges. That’s what the Phillies must do, and, really, that’s their only realistic option unless they’re willing to trade their top two prospects, pitchers Andrew Painter and Mick Abel. They’re not going after Juan Soto.
2. They already have Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, a duo certainly capable of emulating the run Stephen Strasburg and Max Scherzer had in leading the Nationals to the 2019 title after they got into the postseason as a wild card. The difference: That Nationals team had a strong No. 3 starter in Patrick Corbin, while Kyle Gibson looks more like Anibal Sanchez, Washington’s No. 4 starter that year. So the Phillies need another starting pitcher. If they want to think big, how about Detroit’s Tarik Skubal? Given his years of team control (through 2026), he’s probably thinking about moving on from Painter or Abel, or at least catcher Logan O’Hoppe, but the Phillies would get the No. 3 starter who has even more upside down the road. Rentals could include Martin Perez (although the Watchers seem reluctant to trade him), Boston’s Nathan Eovaldi, Jose Quintana or maybe even San Francisco’s Carlos Rodon, who has an opt-out clause and could be available given the Giants’ recent rough patch.
3. Upgrade the defense with Kansas City’s Michael Taylor to play center field. Taylor (+8 runs saved defensively) is an upgrade over Odubel Herrera (minus-2 DRS) in the outfield and at the plate. He’s signed through 2023, so the Royals won’t give him away, but he won’t cost them a premium prospect. Until Bryce Harper returns, Herrera could slide to a corner to allow Kyle Schwarber or Nick Castellanos to DH, so you’re really upgrading the defense by two spots.
4. Add some relievers. David Robertson is the obvious candidate, a veteran who can fill the role in the eighth or ninth inning. However, like the Braves last year, they’ll need some of the guys already here to step up. It’s possible; A.J. Minter was at Triple-A on July 30 last season, but he came back, found the strike zone and was a key reliever for the Braves in the playoffs.
5. And perhaps most importantly…get Harper healthy. Even better, I expect Castellanos to find his groove in 2021.

Like the Braves, the Phillies have a championship-caliber core, at least if Harper and Castellanos are in the lineup and hitting. Add a few upgrades and anything can happen in October.

The Phillies playoff odds before Friday’s games, according to FanGraphs, were 51.0%, with a 1.9% chance of winning the World Series. So 50-50 to at least make it and, given the challenge of overcoming division winners in the next two rounds and then a tough American League opponent in the World Series, slim to none to win it all. But look where the Braves were a year ago: only 11.9% to make the playoffs and 0.8% to win the World Series.

And here are a few more teams that could also surprise with some changes at the trade deadline:

Chicago White Sox
Playoff odds: 54.7% (FanGraphs still considers them the favorites to win the division)
World Series: 1.6 %.
The White Sox aren’t going to trade Lucas Giolito or Lance Lynn, so that’s a sign that the people making these decisions still believe in this club, and they should. The White Sox are right there in the race for the American League Central Division despite their disappointing record, with nine games against the Twins and six games against the Rangers to make up ground. Their next 16 games are against the Athletics, Royals, Watchmen, Royals again and Tigers, so now is the time to put together a 13-3 streak and turn their season around.

What do they need? A power bat, as Luis Robert leads the team with just 12 home runs. They don’t have the prospects to acquire Juan Soto, so the next best hitters available are Josh Bell and Willson Contreras, though in either case that would mean more Andrew Vaughn in the outfield. For the most part, though, the White Sox just need Giolito, Lynn and Yoan Moncada to find their 2021 form and Eloy Jimenez to start doing something.

Boston Red Sox
Playoff odds: 25.6 %.
World Series: 0.6 %.

The Red Sox have been so bad in July that it’s hard to imagine a sudden turnaround, no matter what moves they might make. But they did inform Xander Bogaerts, who has an opt-out clause after the season, that they won’t trade him, so perhaps it’s a sign that they’re not willing to give up the season, simply an indication that they want to re-sign Bogaerts, but they could still end up trading Nathan Eovaldi, J.D. Martinez, Christian Vazquez, Enrique Hernandez, Rich Hill or Michael Wacha, all headed for free agency. Their obvious problem: 35 of their 61 remaining games are against American League East opponents and they have a 12-29 record within the division.

So how do you get the Red Sox to October, let alone win it all? Well, if they don’t get healthy, it won’t matter. Rafael Devers, Trevor Story, Hernandez, Hill, Wacha and Chris Sale are all on the injured list, but Devers, Story, Hill and Wacha are close to returning. Garrett Whitlock is back in the bullpen to help what has been a shaky group. Obviously they need more offense from Alex Verdugo (possible) and Bobby Dalbec (don’t bet on it). The Red Sox are unlikely to make significant outside acquisitions, and Sale’s return from a broken finger remains in “hopefully he’ll be back before the season is over” mode. In other words: it’s not looking good here.

Seattle Mariners
Playoff odds: 74.1 %.
World Series: 1.6 %.

The Mariners have put themselves in a great opportunity to end their world-famous playoff drought, which dates back to 2001, and decided to go big by instead getting Luis Castillo in the biggest trade of this deadline so far. If they get through their next 12 games (the final two of the season against the Astros, six against the Yankees and four against the Angelinos) without too much damage, then the schedule becomes the softest in the majors after that.

But it’s also clear that they don’t have the horses to compete against the Astros and Yankees in playoff baseball: the Houston pitching staff has throttled Seattle’s mediocre offense in their head-to-head clashes since the All-Star Game break. Rookie George Kirby is at 96 innings and may be nearing his innings limit as well after pitching just 67 innings in the minors last season. So, to make the playoffs, they must upgrade their roster.