Arguments for and against the Bengals.
The Cincinnati Bengals come into the Conference Championship Game Round in the role of victims, on the surface. But, not to be fooled. This team is just waiting for the opportunity to go from prey to hunter, and any moment of distraction will do.
Cincinnati hasn’t played in a Conference Championship Game in 33 years. A big part of the Bengals’ success next Sunday against the Kansas City Chiefs will have to do with whether the excitement of getting there will outweigh the anxiety.
At the same time, Cincy plays at times like a team with nothing to lose. Why? Because it’s the only one of the four teams left in the competition that wasn’t really expected to be seen here. As long as they keep that mentality, the Bengals have everything to gain, even before the intimidating Chiefs.
It’s been a long road for these Bengals, from the first overall pick in the draft just three years ago, to a Conference Championship Game. We’ll see if this road still has something to offer them.
Five reasons why the Bengals will advance to Super Bowl LVI.
Joe Burrow. The wonder kid on the offensive trigger is replicating, at times, the magic he showed as a college player at Louisiana State just three years ago, leading them to the national title. A good part of the success is attributed to pure talent, which we already knew he possesses. Obviously, he wouldn’t have been a first overall pick in the draft without it. But a crucial part of what makes Burrow successful has to do with an impenetrable mentality, and an almost infinite confidence in what he’s doing. It’s tough to beat someone like that, coupled with the fact that he’s been playing very well.
One of the keys to the Bengals’ chances of getting past Kansas City will obviously have to do with limiting the Chiefs’ offensive opportunities. There is no better way to own the play clock, than with an effective ground game, and to Cincinnati’s fortune, they have one of the best running backs in the NFL. Mixon is a true three-down runner who doesn’t need to be replaced on third downs. To top it off, he is reliable with his hands as a receiver, and asks nothing of anyone when it comes to pass protection. Mixon’s role will be preponderant in the Bengals’ game plan, beyond the number of touches he receives.
The open receiver group. If there’s one place on the roster where the Bengals’ level far exceeds that of their opponents in rotation, it’s here. Sure, there’s no one in Cincinnati with the kind of elusiveness of Tyreek Hill, who is the best of them all individually. Collectively, however, it’s a different story. Rookie Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd offer a much more even level between the one-three options than the Chiefs, with those coming in behind Hill. That means the range available to Burrow on a given play can be wider, and will make it difficult for the opposing defense to focus on just one player.
Cincy rolled the dice last offseason with Hendrickson. The team decided against re-signing its own free agent, Carl Lawson, a proven player in the club’s scheme. Instead, they gambled on Hendrickson, a player coming off a single positive season with the New Orleans Saints, where he previously spent several years as a backup. The move worked. Hendrickson has to be counted among the best defensive hires of the season, along with DeVondre Campbell and Denico Autry, among others. Anyone who remembers what happened in the last Super Bowl will know that pressure on Patrick Mahomes was the key to the win. That puts a lot of weight on Hendrickson’s shoulders for Sunday.
No, with pure field goals, the Bengals aren’t going to beat the Chiefs at Arrowhead. But, it’s clear that Cincy seems to have found a gem in the fifth-round rookie. The Bengals already beat the Chiefs once this season, with McPherson kicking, and the kid responded again just in the Divisional Round, in a very high-pressure situation, with two good 50+ yard field goals. If it all comes down to McPherson’s kicking, the Bengals will be at ease.
Five reasons the Bengals won’t advance to Super Bowl LVI.
Inexperience. Thirty-three years is a long time. The last time the Bengals reached this deep in the playoffs, Joe Burrow was still eight years old, while head coach Zac Taylor was five. In contrast, the opposing team is playing in its fourth consecutive AFC Conference Championship Game at home, a new NFL record, and has appeared in the last two Super Bowls, winning one and losing the other. The opposing head coach has nine Conference Finals appearances. The Bengals’ lack of experience may cause jitters, among coaches and players, that occasions insurmountable mistakes.
Pass protection. No one can ignore the nine catches the Bengals allowed on Burrow in the Divisional Round against the Tennessee Titans. Yes, the Chiefs don’t have a Jeffery Simmons in their ranks, but there’s Chris Jones, at a similar or higher level. To be fair, not all of the catches were solely the fault of the offensive line. In some instances, the play sent out lacked an escape route to where Burrow could throw quickly if pressured immediately, and in others, Burrow himself held the ball too long. Be that as it may, pass protection is a team effort, and as a team, Cincy failed phenomenally last week.
Points allowed per game. Yes, the Bengals took their first divisional title in 2015, and went into the final day of the regular season with a chance, a long shot, to take the top spot in the American seeding. But from a purely statistical standpoint, Cincy didn’t necessarily rank among the league’s best teams. Although they ranked seventh in the NFL with 460 points scored, they ranked No. 16 in points allowed in the regular season, with 376. In yards, there is also some discordance, between No. 13, with 6,145 yards gained, versus No. 18, with 5,964 yards allowed. They say past stats don’t play on game day, but they do serve to show trends. If KC did what it did last week against the league’s best defense, the Bengals’ defensive elements will have to prepare for a scary afternoon.
Defensive secondary. The Bengals ranked No. 20 in the NFL in terms of pass interception percentage against opposing quarterbacks at just 2.1 percent. In terms of pressure on quarterbacks, they ranked in the middle of the table, No. 14, with a 6.1 percent catch rate on opposing pass dropbacks. That’s taking into account that they faced, among others, quarterbacks such as Ben Roethlisberger (twice), Baker Mayfield (twice), Lamar Jackson, Trevor Lawrence, Jared Goff and Teddy Bridgewater, who did not fare well in those categories overall throughout the season. Yes, they already beat Mahomes once, but the Chiefs quarterback has been taking better care of the ball in recent weeks and is showing good mobility in the pocket. Couple that with keeping Hill and Travis Kelce in check, and it’s clear that a defensive secondary with no real big names will have their work cut out for them in preparation for their next matchup.
Defensive leadership. When the game hangs in the balance, Cincy’s offensive players clearly have someone to look to as the figure who, by his presence alone, can calm the nerves of the rest. His name is Joe Burrow. Who is the player who fills that role defensively? Sure, Hendrickson is the best player on the unit, but that doesn’t automatically make him the voice to listen to, especially in his first year with the club, barely. Logan Wilson led the club in tackles, but he’s not exactly a dominant linebacker either. Perhaps, the biggest defensive leadership figure is safety Jessie Bates III, but I’m not sure. Every other team in this round has more than one such player, be it Tyrann Mathieu, Chris Jones, Aaron Donald, Jalen Ramsey, Eric Weddle, Fred Warner or Nick Bosa. Who is the player of that caliber and weight for Cincy?
