An NFL Draft without quarterbacks

It has been 25 NFL drafts since a quarterback was not selected in the first round, a situation that has only occurred in five instances since the AFL-NFL merger.
It seems almost unthinkable now. The things that become soccer legends, a Sasquatch of history that guys with gray hair tell from time to time, and simply swear it’s true, no matter what you’ve heard before.

In 1996, not a single quarterback was selected in the first round of the NFL draft. It was only the fifth time it has happened since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger, and it hasn’t happened since.

“I don’t see it happening again, ever,” Denver Broncos general manager George Paton said. “I really don’t. The game has changed, the wide-open offense, 7-on-7 tournaments in junior high, high school; there are just too many quarterbacks who are too sophisticated in that regard compared to two decades ago. And, perhaps most importantly, the position has become more important than ever.”

These days, the question is not a quarterback will be selected in the first round, but how many will go in the first 10 rounds. In 2021, quarterbacks were selected with the first three picks of the draft, and five went in the first round.

In 2020, Joe Burrow was the top draft pick, and four quarterbacks were taken in the first round. Three quarterbacks went in the first round in 2019, five in 2018, three in 2017, and we can go on.

“The position is so important, and with the rookie pay scale, the financial penalty for missing is much less expensive than it used to be [for a rookie quarterback],” explained former Buffalo Bills, Carolina Panthers and Indianapolis Colts general manager Bill Polian. “As a result, a first-round gamble on a talented, undeveloped prospect is worth the risk.”

What happened in the 1996 Draft?
In the 25 drafts since 1996, a quarterback has not been selected first overall in just six instances. But, in that 1996 Draft, no passer was selected until Tony Banks was taken with the No. 42 overall pick by the then-St. Louis Rams. Just eight quarterbacks were selected that year, and only three–Banks, Danny Kanell and Bobby Hoying–before the fourth round.

“When you look at it, it’s pretty simple, maybe. No quarterback went in the first round, but how many of those guys ended up starting for a team?” wondered the guy who was a first overall pick that year, wide receiver Keyshawn Johnson. “Clearly, the NFL got it right that year, it happens to have gotten it right, because I don’t think any of the quarterbacks selected started more games than Tony Banks.”

Johnson is correct. Banks’ 78 lifetime starts–for St. Louis, Baltimore and Houston–led the quarterbacks drafted in 1996. Kanell was the only other passer in the group to start at least 24 games. Four of the quarterbacks selected that year—Spence Fischer, Mike Cawley, Jon Stark and Kyle Wachholtz—never attempted a pass during a regular-season game.

“There were no quarterbacks worth a first-round selection. None of them were doing the things that myself, Jonathan Ogden, Kevin Hardy, Simeon Rice–the players at the top of the draft–we were capable of doing,” Johnson explained. “Go ahead–Eddie George, Terry Glenn, Willie Anderson, Marvin Harrison, Ray Lewis–there were no quarterbacks at that level, capable of leading their teams, so they weren’t drafted.”

Three Hall of Famers were taken in the first round that year–Ogden (No. 4 by the Ravens), Harrison (No. 18 by the Colts) and Lewis (No. 26 by the Ravens)–while fellow Hall of Fame wide receiver Terrell Owens was found in the third round. Rice, selected third overall by the Arizona Cardinals, was named Defensive Rookie of the Year, while George, selected No. 14 by the Houston Oilers, would take the Offensive Rookie of the Year award.

Why won’t it happen again?
History has proven that none of the 1996 quarterbacks had anyone question why they weren’t selected in the first round. There is a school of thought that the 2014 Draft, however, could have been, should have been, the last year without a first-round quarterback, but the urgency to find a passer has grown almost exponentially since 1996, and has reached such a level that teams simply won’t let it happen again.

“The position is so critical, everything that goes into it, his talent is just like any position, but everything is hyped at that position,” San Francisco 49ers general manager John Lynch said during the NFL Talent Combine. “A lot of times, you have to make projections from the collegiate to the NFL because the sport is played a different way. Levels of competition, there’s so many things that influence. Just like any position. But, like I said, the importance at the position makes the decision so critical.”

In 2014, Blake Bortles (No. 3), Johnny Manziel (No. 22) and Teddy Bridgewater (No. 32) were the three quarterbacks selected in the first round. Of the three, Bridgewater, taken with the last pick of the first round, has been the only one selected to a Pro Bowl. Derek Carr, chosen by the Raiders with the No. 36 overall pick–already in the second round–is the only quarterback from that draft who has thrown for more than 18,000 yards.

Several personnel executives claim that the 2013 Draft, when EJ Manuel was the only passer selected in the first round; the 1997 Draft, when Jim Druckenmiller was the only quarterback selected in the first round; and the 2007 Draft, with JaMarcus Russell and Brady Quinn as the only passers in the first round; should have joined the 1996 Draft in the history of years without first-round passers.

To date, only five drafts since the merger of the leagues have gone without a first-round quarterback: 1974, 1984, 1985, 1988 and 1996.

The current litter was initially rated as a down year for quarterbacks, but in their most recent first-round mock drafts, ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay each have three quarterbacks being selected in the first round – Pitt’s Kenny Pickett, Liberty’s Malik Willis and Mississippi’s Matt Corral.

“It’s like this year’s crop of quarterbacks,” Paton revealed. “The process kicks off and the public perception is that the quarterback class isn’t there to get excited about. But, they do well in the season, they do well in the Senior Bowl, pro days. They’ve really passed every test except for public opinion.”

The demand for a franchise passer is higher than ever, and the supply has not increased at the same pace. Teams are repeatedly going to take a chance on a quarterback, even at the top of the first round, and pick a passer well above where they might have him rated, in hopes of hitting a jackpot in the quarterback lottery.

“It’s definitely grown in importance,” Johnson said. “But, if you can’t throw under pressure, you’re not going to pan out, you’re not going to be successful, no matter how much they push you up the evaluation charts. And if you’re a general manager and you just select a quarterback in the first round because you need him, and you really don’t think he’s a first-round draft pick, you’re probably going to get fired. You’re not going to improve the player simply because you take him in the first round.”

These days, quarterback sessions at the Talent Combine are televised in prime time, and non-defensive pass rushers at pro days generate fire emojis from coast to coast. Simply put, it seems unlikely that a first-rounder would close in a future draft without it including a quarterback.

“It would be an outlier, extremely outlier year,” Paton admitted. “I just can’t anticipate that happening. Too many teams need one every year, and they’re not going to sit back and let it go.”