10 best openers of this postseason
Now that the divisional series are set, I wanted to make an MLB playoff-flavored update to my season aces rankings. I only include players from teams that are still alive (sorry, Gerrit Cole), and only those currently healthy (sorry, Clayton Kershaw) and rather than projecting for the next season or two, this ranking is based only on this postseason’s value.
That means that past postseason experience means more than in a conventional ace ranking (and in many cases will act as a tiebreaker), while performance in 2021 and current form mean more than a multi-season track record, though I’d like to have both. So don’t read this as “the ultimate ace who had a down season is now behind an upstart with a bounce-back season for 2022”; read it as “Kiley would rather have this hot hand for the next few weeks”. Some of these guys will also be used out of the bullpen, perhaps exclusively, but that doesn’t diminish for me what they could do as starters, if given the opportunity.
Tier 1
- Corbin Burnes, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers.
You can put these four in any order, hence the tier system. Burnes clearly had the best 2021, but he also has the least playoff experience and the fewest career starts, so he could reasonably lean toward a slightly better track record with the others. Burnes posted the highest fWAR pitching total we’ve seen over the last three seasons (7.5 WAR). In the last 10 seasons, he has only been surpassed by Jacob deGrom (9.0), Kershaw 2015 (8.6), Kershaw 2014 (7.9) and Chris Sale 2017 (7.6).
Walker Buehler, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers.
Buehler’s average straight-line velocity is down 1.5 mph this year (96.9 to 95.4 mph, though it’s up late in the season) and his straight-line usage is also down more than 10%, but he’s been humming along with that talent for effectiveness in the low 3.00s his entire MLB career, posting a personal-best 207.2 innings this year. He’s tied for second with Charlie Morton (behind only teammate Max Scherzer) for most postseason innings among those in the playoffs this year and, by any measure, has been one of the best performing pitchers in the playoffs in this year’s crop.
- Max Scherzer, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Scherzer didn’t have his best dominance in the NL Wild Card game, but he had one of the best seasons of his career this year at age 37, with raw stuff comparable to his best seasons, and has the best all-around playoff record of anyone in the playoffs this year. It also helps my comfort level that he has his trademark Mad Max intensity on the mound.
- Brandon Woodruff, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers.
The top of the Dodgers and Brewers rotations should help anyone looking for a splitter in their playoff selections decide to pick these two teams to face off in the National League Championship Series. Woodruff was decent as a rookie in 2017, primarily a reliever in 2018, then from 2019-2021, he posted 374.2 IP of 3.00 ERA in 65 starts. His somewhat limited playoff experience (21.0 innings in 6 appearances and 3 starts) has been very strong (2.57 ERA, even better peripherals), so don’t be surprised if he ends up being the best player this fall in this clear top four.
Tier 2
- Nathan Eovaldi, RHP, Boston Red Sox.
Eovaldi starts a deep Level 2 on the back of his two-year rebound from a World Series hangover. It helps him earn some coin flips that (1) sits between 96-98 mph, (2) he was good earlier this week in a do-or-die opener against the Yankees, and (3) he was also excellent in his other postseason experience in 2018 where (4) he won a ring. One could argue a number of orders for pitchers from the fifth to the near-20th, but I feel better about Eovaldi from that group at this point.
- Julio Urias, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Urias has gone a bit under the radar as an elite young starter due to the sheer amount of personnel he has around him. He just turned 25 and has pitched over 300 innings with a sub-3.50 ERA in each of the last three seasons, with 33 playoff innings of similar quality in the same span. There may not be a true ace on the rise, but he’s not that far off and steady.
