The race of 21 of the 30 teams to qualify

Now that the dust has settled from the media storm that closes the trade window each end of July, Major League Baseball (MLB) teams, especially those closest to the top spot, can fully focus on their efforts to reach the postseason.

Entering the month of August, the penultimate month of the regular series, 19 of the 30 Major League clubs have positive records and two others (Cleveland Guardians and San Diego Padres, with 53-56 and 54-55, respectively) to nothing else. of six games of the last wild card of his circuit.

This means that after playing 66% of the calendar, at least 21 of 30 teams (70% of both leagues) have a real chance of reaching the postseason, the first requirement to aspire to the Commissioner’s Trophy that is awarded to the winner of the World Series.

This is possible due to several factors: A playoff system that places six teams in each league, the highest competitive parity in decades, and the nature of baseball, a game so complicated that whoever misses seven out of ten becomes a legend. possibilities and in which “the game ain’t over until it’s over”, according to the great Yogi Berra.

However, according to the tool used by the Fangraphs portal to measure the odds of teams to win the World Series, only four teams have a double-digit percentage in their championship expectations: Atlanta Braves (24.2%), Los Angeles Dodgers (12.4%). ). ), Tampa Bay Rays (11.6%) and Houston Astros (11.5%).

As the MLB leader in wins (69), run differential (+159) and home runs (203), Atlanta has the largest lead (12 games over the Philadelphia Phillies) among the six division leaders. The Braves, seeking their sixth straight division title, won the World Series in 2021 and lost in the National League final last year.

The Dodgers, the 2020 champions, hold a 2.5-game lead over their great rivals, the San Francisco Giants, as they trail their 10th divisional pennant in the past 11 seasons.

Tampa Bay controlled the East Division for more than three months and MLB for more than two, before ceding first place to the Baltimore Orioles during a series between the two, July 20-23 at Tropicana Field. And while Baltimore leads the Rays by 1 1/2 games, it’s second most likely to win the World Series.

Even the Toronto Blue Jays (4.0%) appear to be in a better position to win than Baltimore (3.8%), according to Fangraphs.

The defending champion baseball Astros trail the Texas Rangers by a half-game in the American League West but lead their geographic rivals in the list of best placed to capture the championship.

Before the major league trade window closed, Texas added starting pitchers Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery, relievers Aroldis Chapman and Chris Stratton, and catcher Austin Hedges. But the Astros, who recently added several injured stars to their regular roster, brought back right-hander Justin Verlander.

According to Fangraphs, the Rangers have a 5.6% chance of winning their first World Series, followed by the Phillies (4.3%), Blue Jays (4.0%), Padres (3.9%), Orioles (3.8%), Milwaukee and the Minnesota Brewers. . Twins and Giants (3.3%). The Cincinnati Reds (a half-game ahead of Milwaukee in the NL Central) are the division leaders least likely to win the upcoming Fall Classic at just 0.5%.