They became the Dodgers’ first bats.
Mookie Betts was still on the injured list when he initiated the most important conversation of the Dodgers’ 2022 season, approaching manager Dave Roberts in the dugout during a June game with a question. “What are you going to do with the lineup?” Betts wanted to know, referring to the arrangement of the top three hitters in the lineup.
The next day, Roberts invited Betts, Trea Turner and Freddie Freeman to sit in the two chairs and couch in his small office at Dodger Stadium, and asked for their input. The feedback helped Roberts design what is arguably the most effective 1-2-3 combination for any team, ever.
Here’s the thrust of the analysis: with Betts as the first bat, Turner in the No. 2 spot and Freeman at third, the Dodgers have three players who rank in the top 10 in baseball in WAR and, as MLB.com’s Sarah Langs points out, this would be the first time in baseball history that the top three hitters in any particular lineup accomplish that together.
Here are the results: in the 65 games since Roberts and the trio agreed on the batting order, the Dodgers have averaged 5.8 runs per game and have won 75.4% of their games; over a full season, that’s a pace of 122 wins. Betts leads the National League with 110 runs scored; he has 34 home runs. Turner has scored 90 runs, connected for 20 home runs and stolen 24 bases. Freeman leads the majors with 181 hits, 45 doubles and a .329 batting average; he has scored 104 runs (second in the NL).
“It’s remarkable to watch,” Roberts said by cell phone recently on his trip to the park. “With those three guys, what I love about them is they love to play baseball; they love to compete. In this game, there’s a lot of self-promotion, but with those three guys, it’s about doing whatever it takes to win the game. That’s something for me as a manager, that filters throughout the clubhouse.”
Freeman sometimes batted second early in the season, and after Betts was sidelined in mid-June with a broken rib, Turner served as the first bat. Under that arrangement, the Dodgers’ lineup really began to take off, so with Betts’ imminent return, I was curious what Roberts thought about the top of the lineup. This was a question, Roberts thought, that required a conversation with the trio, together. “Because they’ve earned that right,” he said.
Betts mentioned to the other three in the room that he considered himself a run-scoring guy: getting on base, spurring action with his speed, maybe connecting home runs. “Mookie felt his DNA was that of a table-setter,” Roberts recalled.
Turner’s self-assessment was similar; he told the others that he felt he fit best as a guy who generates runs by getting on base, challenging defenses and pressuring pitchers. “Listening to Trea, he’s good at batting 1-2,” Roberts said.
Freeman described himself as someone who drives in runs and was comfortable batting in the middle of the order. Roberts recalled being concerned about lineup protection: having an effective right-handed hitter behind him, to discourage opposing managers from consistently bringing in lefties to face Freeman. They talked about the continued evolution of right-handed hitting catcher Will Smith in the cleanup spot; this year, Smith has a .392 slugging percentage and a .451 slugging percentage against lefties.
In this way, Roberts solved the placement of Betts, Turner and Freeman, who present immediate dilemmas for pitchers and catchers. With Turner and Freeman batting behind Betts, pitchers may be more compelled to attack Betts in the strike zone: the first-pitch strikeout rate he’s seeing this year, 62.9%, is the second-highest of his career. One side effect, though: Betts has already set a personal record in home runs. As Roberts pointed out, veterans who hit regularly in the same spot can be more consistent, knowing what kind of at-bats they can expect from those around them. It may be that with Turner and Freeman behind him, Betts can attack with more commitment and, in fact, this year he is swinging at 69% of the pitches thrown to him in the zone, easily the highest rate of his career.
Similarly, Turner is hitting at the highest percentage of pitches in the zone ever, 74.4%. Freeman has had 629 plate appearances this season, and there has been a runner on base 45% of the time, usually Betts and/or Turner. In those at-bats, Freeman is batting .366, with an OPS of 1.025. At his current pace, Freeman would finish the season with 323 plate appearances with runners on base, the most in his career.
Each is an excellent player and would likely thrive regardless of the lineup, of course. Freeman and Betts have won MVP awards and seem likely to earn Hall of Fame induction. If Turner continues on his current trajectory, in which he could finish his career with more than 2,000 hits, 250 home runs and 400 steals, he will at least be a borderline Hall of Fame candidate. But together, these pieces have fit perfectly, in the consistent high quality of at-bats and results, in the top three spots in the order.
As Langs points out, the best trios of teammates in lineups have generally separated. Babe Ruth batted third, Lou Gehrig fourth and Tony Lazzeri sixth. On the 1966 Braves, Felipe Alou opened, Henry Aaron batted third and Joe Torre fourth. On the 1976 Reds, Pete Rose opened, while future Hall of Famers Joe Morgan, Johnny Bench and Tany Perez batted in the No. 3, 4 and 5 spots. In 1979, teammates Willie Wilson, George Brett and Darrell Porter batted first, third and fourth, respectively, and finished that way in the WAR rankings.
But lineups for the most part were constructed with a different philosophy in those days, with managers often electing to use a lighter hitting player in the No. 2 spot, to touch or otherwise advance runners. There has been a shift in the collective thinking of managers, of course, to a simple mantra of trying to get the best players the most plate appearances during a single season. Thus, Aaron Judge has mostly been the first bat or second for the Yankees this year. When Roger Maris connected for 61 home runs in 1961, he batted third most of the season, with Mickey Mantle serving as the cleanup man.
Roberts’ lineup reflects the thinking of this generation. Three big hitters, arranged at the top of the batting order, batting first, second and third: the best 1-2-3 combination of this season, and perhaps of all seasons.