Celtics are super favorites against the Bucks
Boston is coming off a sweep of Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving’s Brooklyn Nets, and will start as favorites over a Bucks team that, despite having two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo, lost forward Khris Middleton before kickoff for the entire series.
The Bucks, meanwhile, beat the Bulls in five games to reach the conference semifinals for the fourth consecutive season, the longest active streak in the NBA.
The last time the Celtics and Bucks met in the playoffs was in 2019, also in the Eastern Conference semifinals, and the Bucks won 4-1. But this time, the ‘moméntum’ seems to benefit the Boston side. Are they super favorites?
Our experts answer these questions and more.
- Fact or fiction: Celtics are super favorites against Bucks
Fiction. Let’s establish two points quickly: Boston is coming off a sweep, to the surprise of some (including me), of the never-indifferent Nets, and will face a decimated Bucks without Middleton. In and of itself, that makes them favorites in the series. But super favorites? You have to respect the champion. And of course, the two-time MVP who, if it weren’t for Jokic or Embiid, would surely win his third MVP award.
That said, Boston had one of the biggest turnarounds in NBA history this season. From being three games under .500 (18-21), in a matter of months they became the best team in the East and secured the No. 2 seed.
According to Elias Sports Bureau, they became the first team in NBA history to be below .500 in 40 games in a season and finish more than 20 games above .500.
They are favorites, too, because they posted the best defensive efficiency in the NBA in the campaign, limiting opponents to 106.2 points per 100 possessions. But the irony is that it was their offense, not their defense, that destroyed the Nets. Of course, there is some merit to Durant having his worst postseason series in a long time (José E. Bartolomei).
Who will be the X factor in Celtics vs. Bucks?
The Celtics’ defense.
If the Boston quintet manages to stay as tight as in the first round series against the Brooklyn Nets and somehow manage to slow down Antetokounmpo or at least keep him out of the paint, they will have more than half of the ‘homework’ done. Although on the other hand the Greek’s three-point shooting has improved quite a bit, but it will always be better to have him in that range than attacking or under the rim.
Good news Boston is that Giannis’ accomplice, Middleton, will not be 100% after missing almost the entire series against the Chicago Bulls.
In addition, one of their starting point guards, Jaylen Brown, is already available for Sunday’s game, which increases the Celtics’ defensive potential.
- Which of these two teams will advance and why?
Celtics. The reason? They are in a better moment after eliminating the Nets, one of the best teams in the East, whom they wiped off the court. It is the most evenly matched series in the NBA semifinals because both teams finished with the same win-loss record for the season (51-31).
And although the Bucks are the defending NBA champions and in these instances, experience can make the difference, not having Middleton on the court throughout the series (he suffered a sprained left knee in the second game against the Bulls) will be the decisive factor because he is one of the three pillars of the team, along with Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday.
