Blue Jays and their push for the playoffs
Toronto Blue Jays
As this is being written, there is a strange dynamic in the American League wild card standings. There are six teams within four games of each other in the loss column, each vying for the second wild card spot and visiting team status in the do-or-die game. The team with the best run differential in this group has a plus-85; the worst in the group has a minus-58.
For the not-so-mathematically savvy, that’s a 143-run gap. In a vacuum, that should mean that the best wild card contender has a record about 14 games better than the worst wild card contender. But, in reality, the worst team is even with the best team in the loss column.
The two teams in question are the Blue Jays and the Mariners, as you’ve no doubt deduced. Seattle famously has the best record in MLB in one-run games at 23-8, while Toronto’s six wins in one-run games (against 12 losses) are the fewest in baseball.
On a related note: The Blue Jays have been searching for reliable, high-level relievers all season. Injuries have hit them hard in this area, with the early-season loss of Julian Merryweather a big blow. The dynamic Jordan Romano has missed time, but has been healthy of late and has stood out as an option late in games. But it simply wasn’t enough.
Hand has been one of the best short relievers in baseball since emerging as a late-inning starter for the Padres in 2017. This year looked to be another strong season before struggling this month, during which he has blown three of six save opportunities with a 7.88 ERA in eight starts.
What’s changed?
Well, we’d be remiss if we didn’t remind everyone about the evolution of MLB swing rates over the past few weeks. For Hand, there is this: through June 2 of this season, his four-seam straights and sliders combined averaged 2,439 rpm. Since then, that number has been 2,261.
Hand has changed his pitch selection over the last period of time from what it was at the beginning of the season. For much of the campaign, he threw his four-seam straight with the same frequency with which he threw his signature slider, which is the pitch primarily responsible for his success. Lately, he has accelerated the use of his sinker, which more or less brings him back to the arsenal he featured a few years ago.
The good news for the Blue Jays is that Hand’s slider has continued to perform consistently through this evolution. And while the four-seam straight has lagged, it’s been more a matter of command than batting ability. He’s a veteran who adapts on the fly and will be a crucial component in the Blue Jays’ push to return to the playoffs.
Giving up Adams was nothing. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel didn’t rank Adams in Toronto’s top 10, but wrote that Adams “has plus power and arm strength, along with decent defensive skills and high-level performance; a consolation prize if a team wants but can get Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and Gabriel Moreno.”
The point is that the Blue Jays have excellent organizational depth behind the plate, and the loss of Adams is less about what he does than what Hand does.
If Hand’s recent problems persist, this deal would prove to have been an overpay, if not in the hit to Toronto’s catching depth, at least in the opportunity cost in the form of another reliever Toronto could have acquired. Their playoff hopes hinge on whether they picked the right guy.
