How the Bucks can make the Finals without Giannis
Giannis suffered no structural damage to his left knee during a scary fall in the third quarter of the Bucks’ Game 4 loss on Tuesday, he was ruled out of Game 5 on Thursday morning.
How can Milwaukee replace Antetokounmpo, and what does it mean for the Bucks’ chances of maintaining home-court advantage in the series? Let’s see.
What the Bucks might look like without Giannis.
Milwaukee had a 6-5 regular season record without Giannis, but that stat comes with an asterisk: three of the five losses came when the Bucks rested most of their starters, meaning they had a 6-2 record in games with a relatively full lineup save Antetokounmpo. With the exception of a 15-point loss to the Dallas Mavericks, those games were against lottery-bound teams, though Milwaukee managed to dominate the lesser competition: the Bucks had a points-per-game differential of plus-12 in games with a full lineup without Giannis.
The first challenge for Milwaukee head coach Mike Budenholzer will be finding enough bodies to fill out a rotation. Before Giannis went down, the Bucks were playing with eight players in the wake of a season-ending injury to starting point guard Donte DiVincenzo. That didn’t change much after Antetokounmpo exited the game. Aside from a two-minute cameo by Jeff Teague, Milwaukee relied on a core group of seven players before Budenholzer emptied his bench in the late stages of the game.
In the regular season, Budenholzer usually replaced Giannis with backup Bobby Portis, but occasionally went with smaller starting lineups by promoting wing Pat Connaughton off the bench. Now that P.J. Tucker is a fixture in the starting lineup, the smaller lineups look more promising for the Bucks. Portis has played sparingly in the playoffs with Tucker and Brook Lopez (six minutes, according to NBA Advanced Stats), and that combo didn’t see action in Game 4.
Opening with Connaughton would allow Budenholzer to maintain a relatively normal rotation with Portis as the backup big man and Bryn Forbes coming in to rest players on the perimeter. Expect Milwaukee to extend the minutes of stars Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton, who are already averaging 38.5 and 36.8 MPJ, respectively, in this series. We know they are capable of more, as Middleton played 42.1 MPJ in the Bucks’ seven-game series win over the Brooklyn Nets and Holiday played 39.8.
How to replace Giannis’ points.
Milwaukee already has a template for winning in the playoffs without Giannis. In Game 4 of last year’s conference semifinals against the Miami Heat, Antetokounmpo left early in the second quarter after aggravating a sprained right ankle. At that point, the Bucks rallied to extend their season before losing a hard-fought Game 5 to Miami.
That win was fueled by Middleton, who got off to a slow start. He had just two points on 1-of-5 shooting in the first quarter and more, while Giannis’ 19 points kept Milwaukee in the game. Thereafter, Middleton scored 34 points, including 21 in the third quarter and outscored the Heat 9-8 in overtime. When Miami was able to hold Middleton to 8-of-25 shooting in Game 5, the Bucks had trouble putting points on the board, finishing with just 94 in the series-ending loss.
During the games Antetokounmpo missed during the 2020-21 regular season, Milwaukee replaced his production by committee. Middleton, Holiday, Lopez and Portis all elevated their scoring by 36 minutes. However, in a playoff scenario, Middleton and Holiday are likely to carry the load, and sacrificing efficiency will be a concern. Middleton’s true shooting percentage dropped from .595 in games he played with Giannis to .545 without him despite those matchups coming primarily against below-average defenses.
Middleton’s efficiency has already been an issue in this series outside of his dominant 20-point fourth quarter segment to help the Bucks rally in Game 3. After that effort, the Hawks adjusted by inserting Cam Reddish into their rotation to defend Middleton.
However, the biggest change was Middleton’s production when he was defended by Atlanta wing Kevin Huerter. He went 0-for-6 in that matchup during Game 4, according to ESPN Stats & Information research, finishing with 16 points on 6-of-17 shooting overall.
How Bucks win with defense
So far, we’ve focused on the offensive end of the court, but the Bucks still have the potential to slow down Atlanta’s offense without Giannis, particularly if Trae Young is out again with a bone bruise in his right foot.
Although Giannis was the 2019-20 Defensive Player of the Year, Milwaukee’s defensive rating was better in the games he missed after factoring in the opposition. That seems to suggest that the Bucks’ other players improving defensive intensity without Antetokounmpo, something that didn’t happen Tuesday after his shocking injury, is more likely to happen.
As a result, Milwaukee is a 3-point favorite heading into Game 5 at home according to William Hill’s Caesars Sportsbook. That line is slightly higher than the typical home-court advantage during the playoffs, according to ESPN Stats & Information, suggesting the Bucks would be slightly favored on a neutral court with Young and Capela questionable to play.
It will be impossible for the Bucks to fully replace the two-time MVP. However, with strong defense and better shooting from Middleton, there is still a path for Milwaukee to win Game 5 and move within one game of reaching the NBA Finals for the first time since 1974.
